Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TSLA analysis

Tesla, Inc.Auto Manufacturers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Electric Vehicles & Battery
TSLA
Tesla, Inc. · Auto Manufacturers
FCF$5.8bB+
Rev+11.8%B
D/E0.18A
P/S12.5xD
PEG4.56D
24.3Score
$328.37$1.3T
1Y Target$398.30Analyst consensus · 40 analysts
5Y Target$696.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,245Long-dated conviction
FCF$5.8bTTM
B+
FCF $5.8b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+11.8%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +11.8% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.18
A
D/E 0.18 — least levered decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈10th pctile)
P/S12.5x
D
P/S 12.5x — most expensive decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
PEG4.56
D
PEG 4.56 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 24.3
Quality0.44
Growth0.50
Value0.06
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
34% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value1539% aboveest. fair value ~$20
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~24% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC3.9% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Auto Manufacturers · market cap $1.3T. Down 34% from 52-week high of $498.83 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 40 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $398.30 (implying +21% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $1.3T market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.83 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 12.5x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $398.30 (40-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $696.63 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $1,245 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TSLA vs the Top Picks average

PillarTSLABook avgDiff
Quality0.440.83-0.38
Growth0.500.91-0.41
Value0.060.75-0.68

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.9 over 34 daily scores
From 21.4 (Jun 22) → 24.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,970
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$246.28
25% below $328.37
$ at risk if stopped
$492.56
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): score, valuation & FAQ

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a Auto Manufacturers company that scores 24.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and FCF (B+), while P/S (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, TSLA sits about 1539% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is TSLA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TSLA 24.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Tesla, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TSLA score 24.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TSLA earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and FCF (B+), and is held back by P/S (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $328.37, TSLA sits about 1539% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TSLA?

Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.83 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 12.5x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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