Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

DORM analysis

Dorman Products, Inc.Auto Parts. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

DORM
Dorman Products, Inc. · Auto Parts
FCF$214mC
Rev+3.3%C+
D/E0.35A-
P/E18.3xB
PEG1.17B+
63.1Score
$132.12$3.9B
1Y Target$162.38Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$237.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$352.66Long-dated conviction
FCF$214mTTM
C
FCF $214m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+3.3%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.3% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.35
A-
D/E 0.35 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E18.3x
B
P/E 18.3 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.17
B+
PEG 1.17 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 63.1
Quality72.3
Growth50.0
Value69.3
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
21% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value13% aboveest. fair value ~$117
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability36% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC12.6% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Auto Parts · market cap $3.9b. Down 21% from 52-week high of $166.89 — deep drawdown territory. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $162.38 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 98% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $162.38 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $237.73 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $352.66 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

DORM vs the Top Picks average

PillarDORMBook avgDiff
Quality0.720.84-0.12
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.690.78-0.09

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+6.4 over 47 daily scores
From 56.7 (Jun 22) → 63.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.0%
90-day change-0.9%
Forward EPS estimate$9.29

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect DORM to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,982
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$99.09
25% below $132.12
$ at risk if stopped
$495.45
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM): score, valuation & FAQ

Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) is a Auto Parts company that scores 63.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, DORM sits about 13% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is DORM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores DORM 63.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Dorman Products, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does DORM score 63.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DORM earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is DORM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $132.12, DORM sits about 13% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.3x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in DORM?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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