D/E 1.47 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E10.8xB+
P/E 10.8 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.52C+
PEG 1.52 — modest premium; above fair value
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 55.6
Quality0.79
Growth0.50
Value0.43
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value67% belowest. fair value ~$909
What the price assumes: outright free-cash-flow decline for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability20% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC45.6% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $83.6b. 9% off the 52-week high of $326.92. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $303.89 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
ROE 45% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $83.6b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $303.89 (18-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $383.65 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $492.02 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
MPC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MPC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.79
0.84
-0.05
Growth
0.50
0.92
-0.42
Value
0.43
0.75
-0.31
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · MPC
Trend
-1.7 over 36 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 55.6 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · MPC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,787
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$223.31
25% below $297.75
$ at risk if stopped
$446.63
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 55.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). On valuation, MPC sits about 67% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade.
Is MPC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MPC 55.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MPC score 55.6 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MPC earns its highest marks on FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is MPC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $297.75, MPC sits about 67% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade. It trades at a 10.8x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in MPC?
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.