Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
59.0Score
$455.03Oct 9 close$127.8B
1Y Target$400.00Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$585.64Compound horizon
10Y Target$868.76Long-dated conviction
FCF$12.9bTTM · 06/26A-
FCF $12.9b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+15.0%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +15.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.33C
D/E 1.33 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E16.0xB
P/E 16.0 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.07B+
PEG 1.07 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 59
Quality79.6
Growth50.0
Value51.5
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value66% belowest. fair value ~$1331
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 15% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability20% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC45.6% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $127.8b. 3% off the 52-week high of $470.00. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $400.00 (implying -12% upside).
Moat
ROE 45% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $127.8b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $400.00 (18-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $585.64 at ~5% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $868.76 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
MPC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MPC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
80
83
-3
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
52
76
-24
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · MPC
Trend
+1.7 over 82 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 59.0 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
MPC at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+57.9%
90-day change
+116.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$51.77
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MPC to earn is materially higher (+116.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · MPC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,820
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$341.27
25% below $455.03
$ at risk if stopped
$455.03
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 59 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, MPC sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 15% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is MPC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MPC 59 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MPC score 59 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 79.6 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. MPC earns its highest marks on FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so MPC is measured against Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is MPC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $455.03, MPC sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 15% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 16.0x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in MPC?
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.