Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
55.4Score
$433.75Oct 9 close$124.9B
1Y Target$388.74Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$569.15Compound horizon
10Y Target$844.29Long-dated conviction
FCF$8.9bTTM · 06/26B+
FCF $8.9b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+12.6%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +12.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.40B+
D/E 0.40 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E18.1xB
P/E 18.1 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.19C
PEG 2.19 — expensive relative to growth rate
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 55.4
Quality80.5
Growth50.0
Value42.3
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value47% belowest. fair value ~$821
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 6% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~13% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC23.8% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $124.9b. 4% off the 52-week high of $449.77. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $388.74 (implying -10% upside).
Moat
ROE 29% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $124.9b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $388.74 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $569.15 at ~6% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $844.29 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
VLO vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
VLO
Book avg
Diff
Quality
81
83
-2
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
42
76
-34
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · VLO
Trend
+7.6 over 82 daily scores
From 47.8 (Jun 22) → 55.4 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
VLO at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+32.3%
90-day change
+96.8%
Forward EPS estimate
$43.14
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect VLO to earn is materially higher (+96.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · VLO
$
%
%
Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,735
3.5% of portfolio
Stop price
$325.31
25% below $433.75
$ at risk if stopped
$433.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): score, valuation & FAQ
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is an Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 55.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, VLO sits about 47% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 6% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is VLO a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores VLO 55.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Valero Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does VLO score 55.4 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 80.5 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 42.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. VLO earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so VLO is measured against Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is VLO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $433.75, VLO sits about 47% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 6% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 18.1x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in VLO?
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.