Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MPC scored 59.0, UGP scored 52.5 — MPC leads.
Compare another set
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Quality-Growth
59
$455.03 · $127.8B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
6.5
MPC leads
UGP
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Quality-Growth
52.5
$7.90 · $8.4B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
CheapestUGP12.7x
Fastest growthMPC+15.0%
Strongest balance sheetUGP0.98
Highest qualityMPC80 / 100
Largest discount to fair valueUGP-69%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
MPC
stronger →← stronger
UGP
80
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
75
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
52
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
53
MPC and UGP split the three pillars evenly.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
MPC
UGP
$12.9bA-
FCF
$1.7bC+
+15.0%B+
Rev
+6.6%C+
1.33C
D/E
0.98C+
16.0xB
P/E
12.7xB
1.07B+
PEG
0.78A-
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
MPC
UGP
66% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
69% below
~-15%/yr
Growth the price impliesyr-1 FCF growth, fading to 4% · lower = less priced in
~-22%/yr
+156%
1-yr DCF upside
+207%
+192%
5-yr DCF upside
+219%
+257%
10-yr DCF upside
+237%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $127.8b. 3% off the 52-week high of $470.00. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $400.00 (implying -12% upside).
Moat
ROE 45% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $127.8b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $8.4b. 5% off the 52-week high of $8.28. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $7.67 (implying -3% upside).
Moat
ROE 20% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where MPC and UGP diverge
On the headline score the gap is 6.5 points in favor of MPC. The widest single difference is Quality, where MPC leads by 4.5 points.
QualityMPC 79.6 · UGP 75.1MPC +4.5
ValueMPC 51.5 · UGP 52.8level
GrowthMPC 50.0 · UGP 50.0level
Pillars run 0–100. Value is judged against each company's own sector, so a Value score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.
Common questions
Is MPC or UGP the better stock?
MPC scores higher: MPC 59.0, UGP 52.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth score, which blends business quality, growth and valuation into one number. A higher score means a stronger business at a more reasonable price — it is not a price target or a recommendation.
Where do MPC and UGP differ most?
The widest gap is quality, where MPC leads by 5 points on the 0–100 pillar scale. The other two pillars are close enough to call level, so this is the one place they genuinely separate.
How are MPC and UGP scored?
Each carries the same 0–100 quality-growth score used everywhere on the site, built from three pillars — quality (profitability and returns on capital), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (what you pay for them) — combined as a geometric mean, so a weak pillar cannot be papered over by a strong one.
How current is this comparison?
The whole universe is re-scored every trading day after the US market close, so the scores and fundamentals here reflect the latest published edition.