COMPARE · Reviewed August 4, 2026
MPC vs VLO
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. MPC scored 55.6, VLO scored 54.5 — MPC leads.
Compare another set
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
55.6
$312.61 · $91.3B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
1.1
MPC leads
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
54.5
$308.73 · $88.9B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
MPC
stronger →← stronger
VLO
79
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
80
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
43
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
40
MPC and VLO split the three pillars evenly.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
MPC
VLO
$12.9bA-
FCF
$8.9bB+
+15.0%B+
Rev
+12.6%B+
1.47C
D/E
0.40B+
20.6xC+
P/E
12.9xB+
1.52C+
PEG
4.08D
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
MPC
VLO
64% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
47% below
~-23%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~-15%/yr
+213%
1-yr DCF upside
+109%
+180%
5-yr DCF upside
+87%
+137%
10-yr DCF upside
+59%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
MPC
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Durable high returns
- Cyclical growth
VLO
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Cyclical growth
The companies
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $91.3b. 4% off the 52-week high of $326.92. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $303.89 (implying -3% upside).
Moat
ROE 45% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $91.3b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
VLOValero Energy Corporation
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $88.9b. 4% off the 52-week high of $320.24. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $309.21 (implying +0% upside).
Moat
ROE 29% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $88.9b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.