Bull Rankings model

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
65.2Score
$81.89Oct 9 close$4.1B
1Y Target$86.71Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$109.47Compound horizon
10Y Target$140.40Long-dated conviction
FCF$412mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $412m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+13.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.56
B
D/E 0.56 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E4.8x
A
P/E 4.8 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — earnings aren't expected to grow

* PEG n/a — earnings aren't expected to grow

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 65.2
Quality72.9
Growth50.0
Value75.9
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value56% belowest. fair value ~$186
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~13% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability150% · Agross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC33.6% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $4.1b. 8% off the 52-week high of $89.45. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $86.71 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $86.71 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $109.47 at ~6% CAGR — earnings growth and a modest re-rating. 10 yr $140.40 if the moat survives secular pressure.

PARR vs the Top Picks average

PillarPARRBook avgDiff
Quality7383-10
Growth5089-39
Value7676in line

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-0.5 over 82 daily scores
From 65.7 (Jun 22) → 65.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

PARR at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD65.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY72.9GROWTH50.0VALUE75.9Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$165$223FAIR-VALUE RANGE$81.9PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$186 · price $81.9 is 56% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+163%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$81.9LOW $33.4HIGH $89.5Trading near its 52-week high ($33.4–$89.5).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+27.3%
90-day change+46.1%
Forward EPS estimate$15.05

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PARR to earn is materially higher (+46.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
24
Position size
$1,965
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$61.42
25% below $81.89
$ at risk if stopped
$491.34
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR): score, valuation & FAQ

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is an Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 65.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, PARR sits about 56% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is PARR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PARR 65.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PARR score 65.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 75.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PARR earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PARR is measured against Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $81.89, PARR sits about 56% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 4.8x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PARR?

Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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