Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PARR analysis

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
FCF$412mC
Rev+13.2%B+
D/E0.56B
P/E4.6xA
PEG
68.4Score
$79.03$4.0B
1Y Target$83.00Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$104.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$134.38Long-dated conviction
FCF$412mTTM
C
FCF $412m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+13.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.56
B
D/E 0.56 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E4.6x
A
P/E 4.6 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 68.4
Quality72.9
Growth50.0
Value88.0
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value34% belowest. fair value ~$120
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-11% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC33.6% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $4.0b. 9% off the 52-week high of $87.03. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $83.00 (implying +5% upside).
Moat
ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $83.00 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $104.79 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $134.38 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PARR vs the Top Picks average

PillarPARRBook avgDiff
Quality0.730.84-0.11
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.880.78+0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.7 over 47 daily scores
From 65.7 (Jun 22) → 68.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+8.3%
90-day change+20.0%
Forward EPS estimate$11.82

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PARR to earn is materially higher (+20.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,976
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$59.27
25% below $79.03
$ at risk if stopped
$493.94
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR): score, valuation & FAQ

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 68.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, PARR sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PARR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PARR 68.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PARR score 68.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PARR earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $79.03, PARR sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 4.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PARR?

Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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