UGP vs the Top Picks average
| Pillar | UGP | Book avg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 75 | 83 | -8 |
| Growth | 50 | 89 | -39 |
| Value | 53 | 76 | -23 |
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
UGP at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
| 30-day change | +0.0% |
|---|---|
| 90-day change | +9.7% |
| Forward EPS estimate | $0.64 |
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect UGP to earn is materially higher (+9.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP): score, valuation & FAQ
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) is an Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 52.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-). On valuation, UGP sits about 69% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 22% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is UGP a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores UGP 52.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Ultrapar Participações S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does UGP score 52.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 75.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. UGP earns its highest marks on PEG (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so UGP is measured against Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is UGP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $7.90, UGP sits about 69% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 22% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 12.7x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in UGP?
Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.