Ultrapar Participações S.A. — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
UGP
Ultrapar Participações S.A. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
FCF$889mC+
Rev+5.9%C+
D/E1.14C
P/E11.2xB+
PEG0.78A-
53Score
$6.26$6.8B
1Y Target$6.43Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$8.12Compound horizon
10Y Target$10.42Long-dated conviction
FCF$889mTTM · 03/26C+
FCF $889m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+5.9%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +5.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.14C
D/E 1.14 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E11.2xB+
P/E 11.2 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.78A-
PEG 0.78 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 53
Quality0.51
Growth0.50
Value0.81
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value38% belowest. fair value ~$10
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC0.2% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $6.8b. 5% off the 52-week high of $6.59. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $6.43 (implying +3% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 142% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Net margin 1.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $6.43 (8-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $8.12 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $10.42 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
UGP vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
UGP
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.51
0.84
-0.33
Growth
0.50
0.92
-0.42
Value
0.81
0.75
+0.06
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · UGP
Trend
-4.6 over 34 daily scores
From 57.6 (Jun 22) → 53.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · UGP
$
%
%
Shares to buy
319
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.70
25% below $6.26
$ at risk if stopped
$499.23
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 53 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and P/E (B+). On valuation, UGP sits about 38% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is UGP a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores UGP 53 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ultrapar Participações S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does UGP score 53 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). UGP earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is UGP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $6.26, UGP sits about 38% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.2x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in UGP?
Net margin 1.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.