Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
PSX
Phillips 66 · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
47.8Score
$278.18Oct 9 close$111.5B
1Y Target$263.11Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$332.16Compound horizon
10Y Target$425.99Long-dated conviction
FCF$6.4bTTM · 06/26B+
FCF $6.4b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+14.4%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +14.4% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.63B
D/E 0.63 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E15.9xB
P/E 15.9 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.90B+
PEG 0.90 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 47.8
Quality47.2
Growth50.0
Value46.2
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value29% belowest. fair value ~$392
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC-9.2% · Freturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $111.5b. Trading near 52-week high of $286.57 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.90 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $263.11 (implying -5% upside).
Moat
ROE 23% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $111.5b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $263.11 (19-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $332.16 at ~4% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $425.99 if the moat survives secular pressure.
PSX vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PSX
Book avg
Diff
Quality
47
83
-36
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
46
76
-30
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · PSX
Trend
-5.4 over 82 daily scores
From 53.2 (Jun 22) → 47.8 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
PSX at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+25.7%
90-day change
+50.4%
Forward EPS estimate
$26.78
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PSX to earn is materially higher (+50.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · PSX
$
%
%
Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,947
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$208.63
25% below $278.18
$ at risk if stopped
$486.81
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Phillips 66 (PSX): score, valuation & FAQ
Phillips 66 (PSX) is an Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 47.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, PSX sits about 29% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.
Is PSX a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PSX 47.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Phillips 66's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PSX score 47.8 on Bull Rankings?
It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 47.2, growth 50.0, value 46.2 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. PSX earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PSX is measured against Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is PSX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $278.18, PSX sits about 29% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 15.9x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PSX?
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.