Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PSX analysis

Phillips 66Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PSX
Phillips 66 · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
FCF$6.4bB+
Rev+14.4%B+
D/E0.63B
P/E110.9xD
PEG1.15B+
54.5Score
$242.87$97.4B
1Y Target$221.68Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$324.57Compound horizon
10Y Target$481.47Long-dated conviction
FCF$6.4bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $6.4b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+14.4%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +14.4% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.63
B
D/E 0.63 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E110.9x
D
P/E 110.9 — most expensive decile in Energy (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.15
B+
PEG 1.15 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.5
Quality67.2
Growth50.0
Value48.2
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value6% belowest. fair value ~$257
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $97.4b. Trading near 52-week high of $246.95 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $221.68 (implying -9% upside).
Moat
ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $97.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trailing P/E 110.9x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $221.68 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $324.57 at ~6% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $481.47 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PSX vs the Top Picks average

PillarPSXBook avgDiff
Quality0.670.84-0.17
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.480.78-0.30

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.3 over 47 daily scores
From 53.2 (Jun 22) → 54.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+16.0%
90-day change+24.8%
Forward EPS estimate$21.26

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PSX to earn is materially higher (+24.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,943
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$182.15
25% below $242.87
$ at risk if stopped
$485.74
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Phillips 66 (PSX): score, valuation & FAQ

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 54.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PSX sits about 6% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PSX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PSX 54.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Phillips 66's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PSX score 54.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PSX earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PSX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $242.87, PSX sits about 6% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 110.9x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PSX?

Trailing P/E 110.9x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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