Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PBF analysis

PBF Energy Inc.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PBF
PBF Energy Inc. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
FCF$743mC+
Rev+13.5%B+
D/E0.64B
P/E5.4xA
PEG
66.4Score
$61.17$7.3B
1Y Target$62.54Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$78.95Compound horizon
10Y Target$101.26Long-dated conviction
FCF$743mTTM
C+
FCF $743m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+13.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.64
B
D/E 0.64 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E5.4x
A
P/E 5.4 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 66.4
Quality0.68
Growth0.50
Value0.86
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value20% belowest. fair value ~$76
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability9% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC19.2% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $7.3b. 18% off the 52-week high of $74.74. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $62.54 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Net margin 3.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $62.54 (13-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $78.95 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $101.26 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PBF vs the Top Picks average

PillarPBFBook avgDiff
Quality0.680.84-0.16
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.860.75+0.11

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+14.5 over 36 daily scores
From 51.9 (Jun 22) → 66.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
32
Position size
$1,957
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$45.88
25% below $61.17
$ at risk if stopped
$489.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF): score, valuation & FAQ

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 66.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, PBF sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PBF a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PBF 66.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PBF Energy Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PBF score 66.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PBF earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PBF overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $61.17, PBF sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 5.4x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PBF?

Net margin 3.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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