Bull Rankings model

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
PBF
PBF Energy Inc. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
61.6Score
$84.27Oct 9 close$10.0B
1Y Target$79.62Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$100.51Compound horizon
10Y Target$128.90Long-dated conviction
FCF$743mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $743m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+13.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.38
B+
D/E 0.38 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E7.4x
A-
P/E 7.4 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — not reported for this company

* PEG n/a — not reported for this company

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 61.6
Quality69.3
Growth50.0
Value67.4
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value27% belowest. fair value ~$115
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability9% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC19.2% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $10.0b. 6% off the 52-week high of $89.48. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $79.62 (implying -6% upside).
Moat
ROE 21% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Net margin 3.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $79.62 (13-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $100.51 at ~4% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $128.90 if the moat survives secular pressure.

PBF vs the Top Picks average

PillarPBFBook avgDiff
Quality6983-14
Growth5089-39
Value6776-9

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+9.7 over 82 daily scores
From 51.9 (Jun 22) → 61.6 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

PBF at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD61.6/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY69.3GROWTH50.0VALUE67.4Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~1% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$102$138FAIR-VALUE RANGE$84.3PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$115 · price $84.3 is 27% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$84.3LOW $25.6HIGH $89.5Trading near its 52-week high ($25.6–$89.5).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+223%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+57.6%
90-day change+88.7%
Forward EPS estimate$17.86

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PBF to earn is materially higher (+88.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,938
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$63.20
25% below $84.27
$ at risk if stopped
$484.55
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF): score, valuation & FAQ

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) is an Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 61.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, PBF sits about 27% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.

Is PBF a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PBF 61.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PBF Energy Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PBF score 61.6 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 69.3 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PBF earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PBF is measured against Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is PBF overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $84.27, PBF sits about 27% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 7.4x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PBF?

Net margin 3.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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