Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AVY analysis

Avery Dennison CorporationPackaging & Containers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AVY
Avery Dennison Corporation · Packaging & Containers
FCF$1.1bC+
Rev+5.8%C+
D/E1.59C+
P/E20.1xB
PEG1.92C+
62.8Score
$183.71$13.9B
1Y Target$201.80Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$295.46Compound horizon
10Y Target$438.29Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.1bTTM
C+
FCF $1.1b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+5.8%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.8% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.59
C+
D/E 1.59 — above the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E20.1x
B
P/E 20.1 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.92
C+
PEG 1.92 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 62.8
Quality73.7
Growth67.2
Value49.9
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value35% belowest. fair value ~$283
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability29% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaging & Containers · market cap $13.9b. 8% off the 52-week high of $199.54. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $201.80 (implying +10% upside).
Moat
ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $201.80 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $295.46 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $438.29 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AVY vs the Top Picks average

PillarAVYBook avgDiff
Quality0.740.84-0.10
Growth0.670.84-0.17
Value0.500.78-0.28

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.4 over 45 daily scores
From 59.4 (Jun 22) → 62.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.3%
90-day change+0.2%
Forward EPS estimate$11.19

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AVY to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,837
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$137.78
25% below $183.71
$ at risk if stopped
$459.28
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY): score, valuation & FAQ

Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) is a Packaging & Containers company that scores 62.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, AVY sits about 35% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AVY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AVY 62.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Avery Dennison Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AVY score 62.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AVY grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AVY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $183.71, AVY sits about 35% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 20.1x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AVY?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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