Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BALL analysis

Ball CorporationPackaging & Containers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BALL
Ball Corporation · Packaging & Containers
FCF$827mC+
Rev+15.6%B+
D/E1.31B
P/E18.2xB
PEG1.21B
60.3Score
$63.59$16.8B
1Y Target$72.57Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$106.25Compound horizon
10Y Target$157.62Long-dated conviction
FCF$827mTTM
C+
FCF $827m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+15.6%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +15.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E1.31
B
D/E 1.31 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E18.2x
B
P/E 18.2 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.21
B
PEG 1.21 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.3
Quality62.7
Growth74.4
Value47.0
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
7% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value9% aboveest. fair value ~$59
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~12% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability36% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC6.4% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaging & Containers · market cap $16.8b. 7% off the 52-week high of $68.29. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. 14 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $72.57 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $72.57 (14-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $106.25 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $157.62 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BALL vs the Top Picks average

PillarBALLBook avgDiff
Quality0.630.84-0.21
Growth0.740.84-0.09
Value0.470.78-0.31

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.3 over 47 daily scores
From 58.0 (Jun 22) → 60.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change+0.1%
Forward EPS estimate$4.52

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BALL to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
31
Position size
$1,971
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$47.69
25% below $63.59
$ at risk if stopped
$492.82
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ball Corporation (BALL): score, valuation & FAQ

Ball Corporation (BALL) is a Packaging & Containers company that scores 60.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+). On valuation, BALL sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BALL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BALL 60.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ball Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BALL score 60.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BALL earns its highest marks on Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BALL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $63.59, BALL sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.2x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BALL?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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