Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SON analysis

Sonoco Products CompanyPackaging & Containers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

SON
Sonoco Products Company · Packaging & Containers
FCF$217mC
Rev+31.2%A
D/E1.32B
P/E9.2xA
PEG0.21A
69.6Score
$59.48$5.9B
1Y Target$63.89Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$80.66Compound horizon
10Y Target$103.44Long-dated conviction
FCF$217mTTM
C
FCF $217m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+31.2%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +31.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.32
B
D/E 1.32 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E9.2x
A
P/E 9.2 — cheapest decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.21
A
PEG 0.21 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.6
Quality63.6
Growth64.1
Value82.6
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value61% aboveest. fair value ~$37
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~18% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The bull case hinges on Sonoco’s Consumer Packaging segment winning the sustainable‑container race, where its engineered paper and plastic containers are gaining market share among North‑American food‑service brands. The business is delivering 31.2% revenue growth YoY, a 13.6% profit margin and a rock‑solid ROE of 28.5%, all while trading at a modest PE of 9x. Our Bull Rankings model flags a 69.6 quality‑growth score and the strongest pillar—Value—suggests the market is under‑pricing this compounding growth, making the stock a clear buy.
Moat
Sonoco’s moat lives in its integrated Consumer Packaging line that supplies rigid paper, steel and plastic containers plus closures to large, repeat‑order customers in the food‑service and consumer goods sectors. The high‑mix, low‑cost production of paperboard tubes and cores creates economies of scale that lock in pricing power, reflected in the 28.5% ROE, and the specialized engineering expertise makes switching costly for customers who need compliant, sustainable packaging solutions.
Risk
The bear case centers on the heavy debt load—Debt/Equity of 1.32—combined with a low‑beta but still elevated valuation at 9‑times earnings, which could compress if the 31.2% revenue surge stalls or input costs rise. A slowdown in sustainable‑packaging demand would erode margins, and a breach of the 1.32 ratio would trigger covenant risk. The key signal for bears would be a quarterly revenue growth dip below 20% and a widening debt ratio.
Horizon
1-3 yr $63.89 (9-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $80.66 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $103.44 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

SON vs the Top Picks average

PillarSONBook avgDiff
Quality0.640.84-0.20
Growth0.640.84-0.20
Value0.830.78+0.04

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.4 over 47 daily scores
From 74.0 (Jun 22) → 69.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.0%
90-day change-1.1%
Forward EPS estimate$6.34

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SON to earn is drifting lower (-1.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
33
Position size
$1,963
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$44.61
25% below $59.48
$ at risk if stopped
$490.71
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Sonoco Products Company (SON): score, valuation & FAQ

Sonoco Products Company (SON) is a Packaging & Containers company that scores 69.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). On valuation, SON sits about 61% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 18% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is SON a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SON 69.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Sonoco Products Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SON score 69.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SON earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SON overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $59.48, SON sits about 61% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 18% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 9.2x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SON?

The bear case centers on the heavy debt load—Debt/Equity of 1.32—combined with a low‑beta but still elevated valuation at 9‑times earnings, which could compress if the 31.2% revenue surge stalls or input costs rise. A slowdown in sustainable‑packaging demand would erode margins, and a breach of the 1.32 ratio would trigger covenant risk. The key signal for bears would be a quarterly revenue growth dip below 20% and a widening debt ratio.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Packaging stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →