1Y Target$111.22Near-term target
5Y Target$155.75Compound horizon
10Y Target$228.95Long-dated conviction
FCF$995mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $995m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+7.0%TTM YoYC+Revenue +7.0% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E1.83totalCD/E 1.83 — elevated leverage, limits flexibility · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E15.0xB+P/E 15.0 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG2.14proxyCPEG 2.14 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Packaging · market cap $10.8b. 17% off the 52-week high of $116.62.
Moat
ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $111.22 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $155.75 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $228.95 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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