Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TGT analysis

Target CorporationDiscount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Retail
TGT
Target Corporation · Discount Stores
FCF$3.0bB
Rev+0.5%C
D/E1.07C+
P/E17.2xB+
PEG2.82C
35.9Score
$169.89$77.2B
1Y Target$161.62Analyst consensus · 34 analysts
5Y Target$236.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$351.02Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.0bTTM
B
FCF $3.0b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+0.5%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +0.5% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.07
C+
D/E 1.07 — above the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E17.2x
B+
P/E 17.2 — below the Consumer Defensive median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.82
C
PEG 2.82 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 35.9
Quality65.3
Growth24.7
Value28.7
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value104% aboveest. fair value ~$83
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability52% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Discount Stores · market cap $77.2b. Trading near 52-week high of $170.75 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 34 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $161.62 (implying -5% upside).
Moat
ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $77.2b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $161.62 (34-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $236.62 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $351.02 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TGT vs the Top Picks average

PillarTGTBook avgDiff
Quality0.650.84-0.18
Growth0.250.87-0.62
Value0.290.76-0.47

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-11.8 over 47 daily scores
From 47.7 (Jun 22) → 35.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+6.4%
90-day change+6.8%
Forward EPS estimate$9.50

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TGT to earn is materially higher (+6.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,869
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$127.42
25% below $169.89
$ at risk if stopped
$467.20
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Target Corporation (TGT): score, valuation & FAQ

Target Corporation (TGT) is a Discount Stores company that scores 35.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, TGT sits about 104% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TGT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TGT 35.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Target Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TGT score 35.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TGT earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $169.89, TGT sits about 104% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.2x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TGT?

Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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