Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BJ analysis

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.Discount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BJ
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. · Discount Stores
FCF$218mC
Rev+5.9%C+
D/E1.35C+
P/E22.2xB
PEG2.21C
53.6Score
$96.42$12.3B
1Y Target$102.95Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$150.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$223.60Long-dated conviction
FCF$218mTTM
C
FCF $218m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+5.9%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.35
C+
D/E 1.35 — above the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E22.2x
B
P/E 22.2 — near the Consumer Defensive median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.21
C
PEG 2.21 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 53.6
Quality73.7
Growth65.1
Value32.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value243% aboveest. fair value ~$28
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~38% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability51% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC22.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Discount Stores · market cap $12.3b. 9% off the 52-week high of $105.78. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $102.95 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Net margin 2.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $102.95 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $150.73 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $223.60 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BJ vs the Top Picks average

PillarBJBook avgDiff
Quality0.740.84-0.10
Growth0.650.84-0.19
Value0.320.78-0.46

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.6 over 47 daily scores
From 56.2 (Jun 22) → 53.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.5%
90-day change+0.6%
Forward EPS estimate$4.91

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BJ to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
20
Position size
$1,928
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$72.31
25% below $96.42
$ at risk if stopped
$482.10
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ): score, valuation & FAQ

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) is a Discount Stores company that scores 53.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, BJ sits about 243% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 38% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BJ a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BJ 53.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BJ score 53.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BJ grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BJ overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $96.42, BJ sits about 243% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 38% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.2x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BJ?

Net margin 2.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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