Bull Rankings model

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) stock analysis

Discount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
PSMT
PriceSmart, Inc. · Discount Stores
50.8Score
$168.88Oct 9 close$5.2B
1Y Target$166.00Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$243.04Compound horizon
10Y Target$360.53Long-dated conviction
FCF$74mTTM · 05/26
C-
FCF $74m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 05/26.
Rev+10.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.2% — at or above S&P median · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.24
A-
D/E 0.24 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E32.5x
C
P/E 32.5 — expensive vs Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.83
C+
PEG 1.83 — modest premium; above fair value

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 50.8
Quality63.6
Growth78.5
Value26.3
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
15% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value229% aboveest. fair value ~$51
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~10% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability40% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC12.9% · B+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Discount Stores · market cap $5.2b. 15% off the 52-week high of $199.84. Revenue growing +10%, comfortably above the S&P median. 3 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $166.00 (implying -2% upside).
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 2.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $166.00 (3-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $243.04 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $360.53 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

PSMT vs the Top Picks average

PillarPSMTBook avgDiff
Quality6483-19
Growth7989-10
Value2676-50

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+1.5 over 82 daily scores
From 49.3 (Jun 22) → 50.8 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

PSMT at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD50.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY63.6GROWTH78.5VALUE26.3Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~38% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$47.2–$58.1FAIR-VALUE RANGE$169PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$51.4 · price $169 is 229% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+41%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$169LOW $112HIGH $200Trading at the 65th percentile of its 52-week range ($112–$200).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-9.0%
Forward EPS estimate$6.41

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PSMT to earn is materially lower (-9.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,858
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$126.66
25% below $168.88
$ at risk if stopped
$464.42
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT): score, valuation & FAQ

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) is a Discount Stores company that scores 50.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, PSMT sits about 229% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is PSMT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PSMT 50.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of PriceSmart, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PSMT score 50.8 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 78.5 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 26.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PSMT earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PSMT is measured against Discount Stores peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is PSMT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $168.88, PSMT sits about 229% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 32.5x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PSMT?

Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 2.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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