Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PSMT analysis

PriceSmart, Inc.Discount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PSMT
PriceSmart, Inc. · Discount Stores
FCF$74mC-
Rev+10.2%B
D/E0.24A-
P/E33.2xC
PEG1.83C+
48.8Score
$172.87$5.3B
1Y Target$153.33Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$224.50Compound horizon
10Y Target$333.02Long-dated conviction
FCF$74mTTM
C-
FCF $74m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+10.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.24
A-
D/E 0.24 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E33.2x
C
P/E 33.2 — expensive vs Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.83
C+
PEG 1.83 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 48.8
Quality63.2
Growth81.4
Value22.6
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value211% aboveest. fair value ~$56
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~39% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability40% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC12.9% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Discount Stores · market cap $5.3b. 13% off the 52-week high of $199.84. Revenue growing +10%, comfortably above the S&P median. 3 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $153.33 (implying -11% upside).
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 2.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $153.33 (3-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $224.50 at ~5% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $333.02 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PSMT vs the Top Picks average

PillarPSMTBook avgDiff
Quality0.630.84-0.21
Growth0.810.84-0.02
Value0.230.78-0.56

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.5 over 47 daily scores
From 49.3 (Jun 22) → 48.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-9.0%
Forward EPS estimate$6.41

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PSMT to earn is materially lower (-9.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,902
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$129.65
25% below $172.87
$ at risk if stopped
$475.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT): score, valuation & FAQ

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) is a Discount Stores company that scores 48.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, PSMT sits about 211% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 39% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PSMT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PSMT 48.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of PriceSmart, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PSMT score 48.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PSMT earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PSMT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $172.87, PSMT sits about 211% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 39% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 33.2x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PSMT?

Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 2.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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