Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

OLLI analysis

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.Discount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. · Discount Stores
FCF$213mC
Rev+16.7%B+
D/E0.38A-
P/E18.8xB
PEG1.39B
71.4Score
$76.07$4.6B
1Y Target$106.20Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$155.49Compound horizon
10Y Target$230.66Long-dated conviction
FCF$213mTTM
C
FCF $213m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+16.7%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +16.7% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.38
A-
D/E 0.38 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E18.8x
B
P/E 18.8 — near the Consumer Defensive median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.39est.
B
PEG 1.39 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 71.4
Quality68.4
Growth84.3
Value63.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
46% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value17% aboveest. fair value ~$65
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability37% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Ollie's relentless sourcing of closeout health‑and‑beauty, home‑goods and seasonal items fuels a 16.7% YoY revenue growth that compounds the franchise, while its lean cost base delivers a 9.1% profit margin and generates $213 m of free cash flow each year. Our Bull Rankings model flags Growth as the strongest pillar (87) and the reverse‑DCF shows the current price already assumes a 13% annual FCF expansion—well below the observed top‑line growth—leaving ample upside if the compounding trend persists.
Moat
Ollie's advantage lies in its deep network of closeout suppliers that lets it replenish shelves with high‑turn, low‑cost merchandise across categories like health‑and‑beauty and home décor, creating a price‑sensitive customer base that rarely switches to full‑price retailers. This sourcing edge translates into a solid ROE of 13.2% and a defensive beta of 0.5, underscoring the durability of its cost advantage.
Risk
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 19.4, a premium to many discount peers, and is still 44% below its 52‑week high of $141.08, suggesting the market may be over‑optimistic about sustaining the current growth pace; a slowdown in closeout inventory availability or margin compression would quickly erode the valuation premium. A breach of the $60.29 52‑week low would confirm the bear thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $106.20 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $155.49 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $230.66 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

OLLI vs the Top Picks average

PillarOLLIBook avgDiff
Quality0.680.84-0.16
Growth0.840.84in line
Value0.630.78-0.15

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.7 over 47 daily scores
From 70.7 (Jun 22) → 71.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.6%
90-day change-0.8%
Forward EPS estimate$5.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect OLLI to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,978
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$57.05
25% below $76.07
$ at risk if stopped
$494.45
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI): score, valuation & FAQ

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is a Discount Stores company that scores 71.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, OLLI sits about 17% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is OLLI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores OLLI 71.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does OLLI score 71.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). OLLI earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $76.07, OLLI sits about 17% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.8x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in OLLI?

The stock trades at a forward P/E of 19.4, a premium to many discount peers, and is still 44% below its 52‑week high of $141.08, suggesting the market may be over‑optimistic about sustaining the current growth pace; a slowdown in closeout inventory availability or margin compression would quickly erode the valuation premium. A breach of the $60.29 52‑week low would confirm the bear thesis.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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