★OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. · Discount Stores
FCF$213mC
Rev+16.6%B+
D/E0.38A-
P/E15.3xA-
PEG0.95B+
1Y Target$120.20Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$151.75Compound horizon
10Y Target$194.62Long-dated conviction
FCF$213mTTMCFCF $213m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+16.6%TTM YoYB+Revenue +16.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.38A-D/E 0.38 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E15.3xA-P/E 15.3 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.95proxyB+PEG 0.95 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0) · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 78
Quality0.68
Growth0.87
Value0.80
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low55% off the 12-month high vs DCF fair value3% belowest. fair value ~$66
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability37% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is a compelling growth story trading at a discount, driven by its unique model of sourcing and selling "closeout merchandise and excess inventory." With robust 16.6% revenue growth and a highly attractive 0.92 PEG ratio, the market is underpricing its compounding potential. The company's ability to generate $213m in free cash flow, despite its current valuation, underscores the strength of its operational model. The crux rests on Ollie's continued success in acquiring diverse, high-value inventory at advantageous prices.
Moat
Ollie's durable edge stems from its specialized sourcing network and operational expertise in acquiring and distributing "closeout merchandise and excess inventory" across an incredibly diverse range of categories, from "health and beauty aids" and "food, candy, beverages" to "housewares and kitchen items" and "lawn and garden related products." This creates a unique "treasure hunt" shopping experience and a cost advantage that traditional retailers, with their rigid supply chains and full-price models, cannot easily replicate. The company's consistent access to this opportunistic inventory stream is a significant barrier to entry.
Risk
The primary bear case against Ollie's centers on the inherent volatility and potential scarcity of its core "closeout merchandise and excess inventory" supply. A sustained period of strong economic growth could reduce the availability of such inventory from manufacturers, directly impacting Ollie's ability to stock its shelves with diverse products like "holiday decor" or "sporting goods." The stock currently trades near its $61.61 52-week low, suggesting market apprehension about its future sourcing capabilities. A concrete signal confirming the bear case would be a sustained decline in the 9.1% profit margin due to increased competition for closeout deals or a significant deceleration in revenue growth.
Horizon
1-3 yr $120.20 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $151.75 at ~19% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $194.62 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See
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Position sizing · OLLI
Position size
$1,975
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$47.79
25% below $63.72
$ at risk if stopped
$493.83
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI): score, valuation & FAQ
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is a Discount Stores company that scores 78 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, OLLI sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety).
Is OLLI a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores OLLI 78 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does OLLI score 78 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). OLLI earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $63.72, OLLI sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety). It trades at a 15.3x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in OLLI?
The primary bear case against Ollie's centers on the inherent volatility and potential scarcity of its core "closeout merchandise and excess inventory" supply. A sustained period of strong economic growth could reduce the availability of such inventory from manufacturers, directly impacting Ollie's ability to stock its shelves with diverse products like "holiday decor" or "sporting goods." The stock currently trades near its $61.61 52-week low, suggesting market apprehension about its future sourcing capabilities. A concrete signal confirming the bear case would be a sustained decline in the 9.1% profit margin due to increased competition for closeout deals or a significant deceleration in revenue growth.
New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.
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