Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

DG analysis

Dollar General CorporationDiscount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

DG
Dollar General Corporation · Discount Stores
FCF$2.2bB
Rev+4.7%C+
D/E1.79C
P/E17.5xB+
PEG1.75C+
59.6Score
$123.41$27.2B
1Y Target$131.90Analyst consensus · 29 analysts
5Y Target$193.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$286.47Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.2bTTM
B
FCF $2.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+4.7%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.7% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.79
C
D/E 1.79 — more levered than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.5x
B+
P/E 17.5 — below the Consumer Defensive median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.75
C+
PEG 1.75 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.6
Quality60.3
Growth62.0
Value56.8
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value26% belowest. fair value ~$167
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability42% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.3% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Discount Stores · market cap $27.2b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $158.23 — deep drawdown territory. 29 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $131.90 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 141% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Net margin 3.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $131.90 (29-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $193.11 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $286.47 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

DG vs the Top Picks average

PillarDGBook avgDiff
Quality0.600.84-0.24
Growth0.620.84-0.22
Value0.570.78-0.22

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.9 over 47 daily scores
From 61.5 (Jun 22) → 59.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.3%
90-day change+1.1%
Forward EPS estimate$8.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect DG to earn is drifting higher (+1.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,975
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$92.56
25% below $123.41
$ at risk if stopped
$493.64
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Dollar General Corporation (DG): score, valuation & FAQ

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is a Discount Stores company that scores 59.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, DG sits about 26% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is DG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores DG 59.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Dollar General Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does DG score 59.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DG earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $123.41, DG sits about 26% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.5x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in DG?

Net margin 3.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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