Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

POST analysis

Post Holdings, Inc.Packaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

POST
Post Holdings, Inc. · Packaged Foods
FCF$553mC+
Rev+6.2%C+
D/E2.47D
P/E14.7xA-
PEG1.17B+
67.1Score
$80.58$3.7B
1Y Target$105.17Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$132.77Compound horizon
10Y Target$170.27Long-dated conviction
FCF$553mTTM
C+
FCF $553m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+6.2%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.2% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E2.47
D
D/E 2.47 — most levered decile in Consumer Defensive (≈95th pctile)
P/E14.7x
A-
P/E 14.7 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.17
B+
PEG 1.17 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 67.1
Quality52.5
Growth76.5
Value75.2
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
31% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value46% belowest. fair value ~$149
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability19% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC6.0% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $3.7b. Down 31% from 52-week high of $117.28 — deep drawdown territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $105.17 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 189% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 2.47 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 3.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $105.17 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $132.77 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $170.27 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

POST vs the Top Picks average

PillarPOSTBook avgDiff
Quality0.520.84-0.32
Growth0.770.92-0.15
Value0.750.75in line

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.9). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.3 over 40 daily scores
From 64.8 (Jun 22) → 67.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
24
Position size
$1,934
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$60.44
25% below $80.58
$ at risk if stopped
$483.48
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST): score, valuation & FAQ

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 67.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, POST sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is POST a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores POST 67.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Post Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does POST score 67.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). POST earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is POST overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $80.58, POST sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.7x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in POST?

D/E 2.47 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 3.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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