Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PEP analysis

PepsiCo, Inc.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PEP
PepsiCo, Inc. · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
FCF$7.7bB+
Rev+2.3%C
D/E2.39C
P/E18.5xB
PEG1.52C+
60.3Score
$138.24$188.8B
1Y Target$155.00Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$226.94Compound horizon
10Y Target$336.64Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.7bTTM
B+
FCF $7.7b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+2.3%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.3% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E2.39
C
D/E 2.39 — more levered than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E18.5x
B
P/E 18.5 — near the Consumer Defensive median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.52
C+
PEG 1.52 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.3
Quality72.2
Growth54.8
Value55.3
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value60% aboveest. fair value ~$86
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability45% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC12.7% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · market cap $188.8b. 19% off the 52-week high of $171.48. 22 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $155.00 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
ROE 37% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $188.8b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 2.39 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 75% of earnings on a 4.2% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $155.00 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $226.94 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $336.64 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PEP vs the Top Picks average

PillarPEPBook avgDiff
Quality0.720.84-0.12
Growth0.550.84-0.29
Value0.550.78-0.23

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.6 over 47 daily scores
From 59.7 (Jun 22) → 60.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.1%
90-day change-1.8%
Forward EPS estimate$8.98

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PEP to earn is drifting lower (-1.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
14
Position size
$1,935
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$103.68
25% below $138.24
$ at risk if stopped
$483.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): score, valuation & FAQ

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is a Beverages - Non-Alcoholic company that scores 60.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+). On valuation, PEP sits about 60% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PEP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PEP 60.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PepsiCo, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PEP score 60.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PEP earns its highest marks on FCF (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PEP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $138.24, PEP sits about 60% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.5x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PEP?

D/E 2.39 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 75% of earnings on a 4.2% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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