Beverages - Non-Alcoholic. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc. · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
65.5Score
$125.97Oct 9 close$171.7B
1Y Target$143.86Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$210.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$312.46Long-dated conviction
FCF$10.5bTTM · 09/26A-
FCF $10.5b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 09/26.
Rev+6.4%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +6.4% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E2.31C
D/E 2.31 — more levered than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E16.5xB+
P/E 16.5 — below the Consumer Defensive median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.31B
PEG 1.31 — acceptable premium for growth
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 65.5
Quality78.2
Growth56.1
Value64.1
Why this score
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value5% aboveest. fair value ~$120
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 6% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~6% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability48% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC16.6% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · market cap $171.7b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $171.48 — deep drawdown territory. 22 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $143.86 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
ROE 49% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $171.7b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 2.31 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 75% of earnings on a 4.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $143.86 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $210.63 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $312.46 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
PEP vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PEP
Book avg
Diff
Quality
78
83
-5
Growth
56
89
-33
Value
64
76
-12
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · PEP
Trend
+5.8 over 82 daily scores
From 59.7 (Jun 22) → 65.5 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
PEP at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-2.9%
90-day change
-3.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$8.71
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PEP to earn is drifting lower (-3.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · PEP
$
%
%
Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,890
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$94.48
25% below $125.97
$ at risk if stopped
$472.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): score, valuation & FAQ
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is a Beverages - Non-Alcoholic company that scores 65.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-) and P/E (B+). On valuation, PEP sits about 5% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 6% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is PEP a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PEP 65.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PepsiCo, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PEP score 65.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 78.2 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 56.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PEP earns its highest marks on FCF (A-) and P/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PEP is measured against Beverages - Non-Alcoholic peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is PEP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $125.97, PEP sits about 5% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 6% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 16.5x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PEP?
D/E 2.31 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Dividend payout 75% of earnings on a 4.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.