Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CELH analysis

Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock — Beverages - Non-Alcoholic. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
FCF$463mC
Rev+82.9%A
D/E0.23A-
P/E145.0xD
PEG0.35A
72.5Score
$33.36$8.4B
1Y Target$40.95Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$59.95Compound horizon
10Y Target$88.94Long-dated conviction
FCF$463mTTM
C
FCF $463m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+82.9%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +82.9% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.23
A-
D/E 0.23 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E145.0x
D
P/E 145.0 — most expensive decile in Consumer Defensive (≈95th pctile)
PEG0.35
A
PEG 0.35 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72.5
Quality64.0
Growth100.0
Value59.5
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
50% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value21% belowest. fair value ~$42
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~21% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability29% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC6.8% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Celsius’s explosive 82.9% FY revenue growth is powered by its CELSIUS ESSENTIALS line, which is rapidly winning shelf space in supermarkets and convenience stores across North America and Europe. The brand’s $463 m free‑cash‑flow generation at a modest PE of 55.3 shows the business can reinvest profitably while the market still values it at a 52‑week low of $23.55, leaving upside locked in the consensus target of $53.06. The thesis rests on the continued roll‑out of its zero‑sugar hydration powders that expand the addressable functional‑beverage market and keep the growth pillar at a perfect 100 in our model.
Moat
Celsius’s moat comes from its direct‑to‑store delivery network and exclusive distribution agreements that lock in premium shelf placement for its ready‑to‑drink and powder formats, creating a high switching cost for retailers accustomed to its fast‑turn inventory. The company’s ROE of 10.8% reflects pricing power in the premium functional‑energy segment, where its proprietary blend of aminos and electrolytes cannot be duplicated without costly reformulation.
Risk
The biggest risk is the lofty valuation: a PE of 55.3 and a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of –1% per year signal that investors are already pricing in near‑term hype, while the Quality pillar at only 63 warns of execution fragility. A slowdown in the high‑growth functional‑beverage trend or a margin squeeze would push the stock back toward its 52‑week low, confirming the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $40.95 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $59.95 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $88.94 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CELH vs the Top Picks average

PillarCELHBook avgDiff
Quality0.640.84-0.20
Growth1.000.87+0.13
Value0.600.76-0.16

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · CELH
Trend
-1.3 over 48 daily scores
From 73.8 (Jun 22) → 72.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-12.0%
90-day change-14.2%
Forward EPS estimate$1.74

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CELH to earn is materially lower (-14.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Position sizing · CELH
Shares to buy
59
Position size
$1,968
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$25.02
25% below $33.36
$ at risk if stopped
$492.06
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CELH developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH): score, valuation & FAQ

Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH) is a Beverages - Non-Alcoholic company that scores 72.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CELH sits about 21% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CELH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CELH 72.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CELH score 72.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CELH earns its highest marks on Rev (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CELH overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $33.36, CELH sits about 21% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 145.0x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CELH?

The biggest risk is the lofty valuation: a PE of 55.3 and a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of –1% per year signal that investors are already pricing in near‑term hype, while the Quality pillar at only 63 warns of execution fragility. A slowdown in the high‑growth functional‑beverage trend or a margin squeeze would push the stock back toward its 52‑week low, confirming the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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