The Hershey Company — Confectioners. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
HSY
The Hershey Company · Confectioners
FCF$2.2bB
Rev+7.7%B
D/E1.30C+
P/E24.9xC+
PEG1.04B+
67.6Score
$184.23$37.0B
1Y Target$205.81Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$301.33Compound horizon
10Y Target$447.00Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.2bTTMB
FCF $2.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+7.7%TTM YoYB
Revenue +7.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.30C+
D/E 1.30 — above the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E24.9xC+
P/E 24.9 — above the Consumer Defensive median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.04B+
PEG 1.04 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 67.6
Quality81.5
Growth75.9
Value49.8
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value16% belowest. fair value ~$218
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~16% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability33% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.8% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Confectioners · market cap $37.0b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $239.48 — deep drawdown territory. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $205.81 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
Net margin 12% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 33% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 150% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $205.81 (21-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $301.33 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $447.00 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
HSY vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
HSY
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.82
0.84
-0.03
Growth
0.76
0.92
-0.16
Value
0.50
0.75
-0.25
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.9). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · HSY
Trend
+5.4 over 39 daily scores
From 62.2 (Jun 22) → 67.6 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · HSY
$
%
%
Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,842
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$138.17
25% below $184.23
$ at risk if stopped
$460.57
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
The Hershey Company (HSY): score, valuation & FAQ
The Hershey Company (HSY) is a Confectioners company that scores 67.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, HSY sits about 16% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is HSY a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores HSY 67.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The Hershey Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does HSY score 67.6 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HSY earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is HSY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $184.23, HSY sits about 16% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 24.9x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in HSY?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.