Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NUE analysis

Nucor CorporationSteel. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Infrastructure & Reshoring
NUE
Nucor Corporation · Steel
FCF$1.6bC+
Rev+17.2%B+
D/E0.31B
P/E19.5xB
PEG5.21D
42.5Score
$243.63$55.3B
1Y Target$282.81Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$414.07Compound horizon
10Y Target$614.24Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.6bTTM
C+
FCF $1.6b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+17.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.31
B
D/E 0.31 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E19.5x
B
P/E 19.5 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG5.21
D
PEG 5.21 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 42.5
Quality63.2
Growth50.0
Value24.3
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value312% aboveest. fair value ~$59
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~42% a year for the next decade — vs the ~2% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability15% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Nucor’s Steel Mills segment is riding a 17.2% year‑over‑year revenue surge, powered by booming construction and infrastructure demand across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and that growth is backed by a robust $1.6B free‑cash‑flow run‑rate. With a market‑leading 19.2 P/E and a solid 13% ROE, the company is compounding earnings faster than most peers, making the current price a premium bet on continued steel‑product demand. The thesis hinges on the persistence of this high‑margin, high‑growth steel‑milling engine.
Moat
Nucor’s moat lives in its vertically integrated Steel Mills operation that supplies hot‑rolled, cold‑rolled and galvanized sheet steel directly to service centers and fabricators, creating high switching costs and pricing power in a fragmented market. The low debt‑to‑equity of 0.31 lets it fund capacity upgrades without diluting shareholders, while its 13% ROE reflects efficient use of capital in a capital‑intensive industry that few rivals can match.
Risk
The steel sector’s cyclicality looms large; a slowdown in construction would crush demand for Nucor’s sheet and rebar products, and the stock’s high beta of 1.89 amplifies any market pull‑back. Moreover, a PEG of 5.21 signals that the current 19.2 P/E is pricing in growth far beyond the 17.2% revenue pace, leaving little cushion if margins compress. A sustained dip in steel prices or a rise in raw‑material costs would trigger a sharp re‑rating and invalidate the bull case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $282.81 (16-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $414.07 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $614.24 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NUE vs the Top Picks average

PillarNUEBook avgDiff
Quality0.630.84-0.21
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.240.78-0.54

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+9.7 over 45 daily scores
From 32.8 (Jun 22) → 42.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+10.1%
90-day change+21.3%
Forward EPS estimate$19.14

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NUE to earn is materially higher (+21.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,949
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$182.72
25% below $243.63
$ at risk if stopped
$487.26
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Nucor Corporation (NUE): score, valuation & FAQ

Nucor Corporation (NUE) is a Steel company that scores 42.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NUE sits about 312% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 42% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is NUE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NUE 42.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Nucor Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NUE score 42.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NUE earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NUE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $243.63, NUE sits about 312% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 42% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 19.5x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NUE?

The steel sector’s cyclicality looms large; a slowdown in construction would crush demand for Nucor’s sheet and rebar products, and the stock’s high beta of 1.89 amplifies any market pull‑back. Moreover, a PEG of 5.21 signals that the current 19.2 P/E is pricing in growth far beyond the 17.2% revenue pace, leaving little cushion if margins compress. A sustained dip in steel prices or a rise in raw‑material costs would trigger a sharp re‑rating and invalidate the bull case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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