Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BTG analysis

B2Gold CorpGold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Gold & Precious Metals
BTG
B2Gold Corp · Gold
FCF$923mC+
Rev+60.9%A
D/E0.11A-
P/E9.9xA
PEG0.10A
70.4Score
$5.52$7.3B
1Y Target$6.15Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$7.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$9.96Long-dated conviction
FCF$923mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $923m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+60.9%FY YoY
A
Revenue +60.9% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.11
A-
D/E 0.11 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E9.9x
A
P/E 9.9 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.10est.
A
PEG 0.10 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.4
Quality75.6
Growth50.0
Value92.1
Why this score
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value57% belowest. fair value ~$13
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC25.8% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The bull case hinges on B2Gold’s ultra‑high revenue expansion at its operating mines – the Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto and Goose sites – which drove a 60.9% YoY revenue growth and delivered a 21.3% profit margin while generating $923 m of free cash flow in the trailing twelve months. Coupled with a rock‑bottom PE of 9.1x and a modest debt‑to‑equity of 0.11, the stock trades far below the intrinsic value implied by its strong cash generation, making the upside rest on continued mine output scaling.
Moat
B2Gold’s moat derives from its diversified, fully owned mine portfolio across four stable gold‑producing jurisdictions, which secures low‑cost, high‑grade ore and shields the company from single‑site disruptions. The 100% interest in the Gramalote project adds a pipeline of future supply, while the consistent 21.3% margin reflects cost discipline that rivals cannot replicate without comparable asset bases.
Risk
The bear case centers on the model’s dividend‑cut signal and cyclical growth warning: a 1.35 beta amplifies gold price volatility, and the reverse‑DCF shows the market pricing an unrealistic –8% annual free‑cash‑flow decline over ten years, a stark contrast to the 60.9% revenue surge. A sustained gold price slump or operational hiccup at any of the four mines would validate the implied negative growth and crush the valuation.
Horizon
1-3 yr $6.15 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $7.76 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $9.96 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BTG vs the Top Picks average

PillarBTGBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.84-0.08
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.920.78+0.14

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.3 over 45 daily scores
From 70.1 (Jun 22) → 70.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.3%
90-day change-9.6%
Forward EPS estimate$1.06

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BTG to earn is materially lower (-9.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
362
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.14
25% below $5.52
$ at risk if stopped
$499.56
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest BTG developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

B2Gold Corp (BTG): score, valuation & FAQ

B2Gold Corp (BTG) is a Gold company that scores 70.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). On valuation, BTG sits about 57% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BTG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BTG 70.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of B2Gold Corp's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BTG score 70.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BTG earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BTG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $5.52, BTG sits about 57% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 9.9x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BTG?

The bear case centers on the model’s dividend‑cut signal and cyclical growth warning: a 1.35 beta amplifies gold price volatility, and the reverse‑DCF shows the market pricing an unrealistic –8% annual free‑cash‑flow decline over ten years, a stark contrast to the 60.9% revenue surge. A sustained gold price slump or operational hiccup at any of the four mines would validate the implied negative growth and crush the valuation.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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