OceanaGold Corporation — Gold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
OGC
OceanaGold Corporation · Gold
FCF$765mC+
Rev+46.3%A
D/E0.02A
P/E8.2xA
PEG——
76.8Score
$31.01$6.9B
1Y Target$35.66Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$52.21Compound horizon
10Y Target$77.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$765mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $765m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+46.3%FY YoYA
Revenue +46.3% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.02A
D/E 0.02 — least levered decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
P/E8.2xA
P/E 8.2 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG——
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 76.8
Quality95.5
Growth50.0
Value95.0
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value46% belowest. fair value ~$57
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
The bull case hinges on OGC’s ultra‑high‑margin gold operations in the Philippines and New Zealand, which are fueling a revenue surge of 46.3% YoY and a profit margin of 35.1%, while the stock trades at a rock‑bottom PE of 7.7—a clear mispricing given its 37.3% ROE. Our model’s 72/100 quality‑growth score (Quality 95) tells us the business is a premium cash‑generator, and the dividend raise adds immediate upside. The thesis rests on the continuation of this compounding cash flow as gold prices stay supportive.
Moat
OGC’s moat stems from its low‑cost, high‑grade gold mines that deliver a 37.3% ROE, a level only achievable with pricing power in a scarce, high‑grade resource base. With a debt‑to‑equity of just 0.02, the company can reinvest cash at minimal financing cost, creating a cost advantage that rivals cannot quickly replicate in the same jurisdictions.
Risk
The bear case focuses on gold’s cyclicality and OGC’s high beta of 1.51, meaning price swings will amplify any downturn in the metal. The reverse DCF shows the current price embeds a -3% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade—far below the 46.3% revenue growth, indicating the market may already be pricing in a sharp slowdown. A sustained drop in gold prices below the break‑even level would trigger margin compression and validate this risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $35.66 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $52.21 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $77.45 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
OGC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
OGC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.95
0.84
+0.12
Growth
0.50
0.84
-0.34
Value
0.95
0.78
+0.17
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · OGC
Trend
+4.8 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 76.8 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · OGC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
64
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$23.26
25% below $31.01
$ at risk if stopped
$496.16
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) is a Gold company that scores 76.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A) and P/E (A). On valuation, OGC sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is OGC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores OGC 76.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A) and P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of OceanaGold Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does OGC score 76.8 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). OGC earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A) and P/E (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is OGC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $31.01, OGC sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 8.2x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in OGC?
The bear case focuses on gold’s cyclicality and OGC’s high beta of 1.51, meaning price swings will amplify any downturn in the metal. The reverse DCF shows the current price embeds a -3% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade—far below the 46.3% revenue growth, indicating the market may already be pricing in a sharp slowdown. A sustained drop in gold prices below the break‑even level would trigger margin compression and validate this risk.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.