Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MDLZ analysis

Mondelez International, Inc.Confectioners. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Agriculture & Food
MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc. · Confectioners
FCF$2.6bB
Rev+7.8%B
D/E0.83B
P/E23.6xB
PEG1.07B+
57.7Score
$64.70$82.6B
1Y Target$69.13Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$101.21Compound horizon
10Y Target$150.14Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.6bTTM
B
FCF $2.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+7.8%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.8% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.83
B
D/E 0.83 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E23.6x
B
P/E 23.6 — near the Consumer Defensive median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.07
B+
PEG 1.07 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.7
Quality57.7
Growth75.6
Value43.9
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value85% aboveest. fair value ~$35
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~23% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability16% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.9% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Confectioners · market cap $82.6b. Trading near 52-week high of $66.65 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $69.13 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
ROE 10% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 99% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $82.6b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $69.13 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $101.21 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $150.14 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MDLZ vs the Top Picks average

PillarMDLZBook avgDiff
Quality0.580.84-0.26
Growth0.760.87-0.12
Value0.440.76-0.32

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.4 over 48 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 57.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.3%
90-day change-0.7%
Forward EPS estimate$3.36

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MDLZ to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
30
Position size
$1,941
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$48.53
25% below $64.70
$ at risk if stopped
$485.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): score, valuation & FAQ

Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a Confectioners company that scores 57.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, MDLZ sits about 85% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MDLZ a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MDLZ 57.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Mondelez International, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MDLZ score 57.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MDLZ earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MDLZ overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $64.70, MDLZ sits about 85% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 23.6x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MDLZ?

Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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