Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BF-B analysis

Brown-Forman CorporationBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BF-B
Brown-Forman Corporation · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
FCF$893mC+
Rev-1.2%D+
D/E0.65B+
P/E18.6xB+
PEG2.14C
54.7Score
$28.44$13.1B
1Y Target$27.85Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$40.77Compound horizon
10Y Target$60.48Long-dated conviction
FCF$893mTTM
C+
FCF $893m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev-1.2%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.2% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.65
B+
D/E 0.65 — below the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E18.6x
B+
P/E 18.6 — below the Consumer Defensive median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.14
C
PEG 2.14 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.7
Quality80.5
Growth36.3
Value55.8
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value3% aboveest. fair value ~$28
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~1% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability30% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC12.1% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · market cap $13.1b. 11% off the 52-week high of $31.92. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $27.85 (implying -2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 125% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $27.85 (17-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $40.77 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $60.48 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BF-B vs the Top Picks average

PillarBF-BBook avgDiff
Quality0.810.84-0.03
Growth0.360.84-0.48
Value0.560.78-0.22

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.8 over 47 daily scores
From 53.9 (Jun 22) → 54.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.8%
90-day change+0.2%
Forward EPS estimate$1.70

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BF-B to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
70
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$21.33
25% below $28.44
$ at risk if stopped
$497.70
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B): score, valuation & FAQ

Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) is a Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries company that scores 54.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, BF-B sits about 3% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BF-B a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BF-B 54.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Brown-Forman Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BF-B score 54.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BF-B earns its highest marks on D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BF-B overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $28.44, BF-B sits about 3% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.6x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BF-B?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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