Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ETSY analysis

Etsy, Inc.Internet Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ETSY
Etsy, Inc. · Internet Retail
FCF$649mC+
Rev+3.7%C+
D/E
P/E25.3xC+
PEG1.04B+
60.1Score
$79.90$7.3B
1Y Target$85.92Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$125.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$186.60Long-dated conviction
FCF$649mTTM
C+
FCF $649m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+3.7%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.7% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E25.3x
C+
P/E 25.3 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.04
B+
PEG 1.04 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.1
Quality72.2
Growth43.7
Value68.6
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value3% belowest. fair value ~$83
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability85% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Internet Retail · market cap $7.3b. 9% off the 52-week high of $87.97. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $85.92 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Beta 1.82 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE -15% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Logistics + fulfillment cost — gross margin is sensitive to fuel, labor, and packaging costs that re-price faster than retail pricing can adjust.
Horizon
1-3 yr $85.92 (24-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $125.79 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $186.60 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ETSY vs the Top Picks average

PillarETSYBook avgDiff
Quality0.720.84-0.12
Growth0.440.85-0.42
Value0.690.78-0.09

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.3 over 42 daily scores
From 65.4 (Jun 22) → 60.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$59.93
25% below $79.90
$ at risk if stopped
$499.38
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY): score, valuation & FAQ

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) is a Internet Retail company that scores 60.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, ETSY sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ETSY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ETSY 60.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Etsy, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ETSY score 60.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ETSY earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ETSY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $79.90, ETSY sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 25.3x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ETSY?

Beta 1.82 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. ROE -15% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Logistics + fulfillment cost — gross margin is sensitive to fuel, labor, and packaging costs that re-price faster than retail pricing can adjust.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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