Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AMZN analysis

Amazon.com, Inc. — Internet Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AI
★
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. · Internet Retail
FCF-$11.6bF
Rev+15.8%B+
D/E0.46B+
P/S3.7xC
PEG1.42B
56.6Score
$262.65$2.8T
1Y Target$326.82Analyst consensus · 60 analysts
5Y Target$571.61Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,022Long-dated conviction
FCF-$11.6bTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$11.6b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+15.8%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +15.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.46
B+
D/E 0.46 — below the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S3.7x
C
P/S 3.7x — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.42
B
PEG 1.42 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.6
Quality62.6
Growth57.3
Value50.6
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability36% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.8% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Amazon’s relentless expansion of Amazon Web Services fuels a compounding engine that will keep revenue climbing at 15.8% YoY while the core retail arm sustains a healthy 17.4% profit margin; together they underpin a stellar 24.5% ROE. The Bull Rankings model flags Quality as the strongest pillar, confirming that the business’s operating efficiency and pricing power are unrivaled, and the consensus 1‑yr target of $326.82 reflects the market’s belief that this growth trajectory will accelerate. The thesis rests on AWS‑driven cash conversion and the ability to reinvest earnings into higher‑margin services.
Moat
AWS’s massive scale and deep integration with enterprise workloads create a cost advantage that rivals can’t match, while the Amazon Marketplace locks in millions of third‑party sellers and Prime subscribers, generating sticky recurring revenue and pricing leverage that drives the 24.5% ROE. This network effect and the proprietary logistics network lock in customers and protect margins.
Risk
The bear case centers on the negative free cash flow of -$11.6 B and a debt‑to‑equity of 0.46, which could force capital allocation away from growth if cash generation stalls; a P/E of 21.1 is elevated for a company whose revenue growth may decelerate from the current 15.8% pace, and a beta of 1.45 amplifies downside in a market pullback. A sustained margin compression below 15% or a cash‑flow breach would confirm the risk and break the bull thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $326.82 (60-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $571.61 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $1,022 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AMZN vs the Top Picks average

PillarAMZNBook avgDiff
Quality0.630.84-0.21
Growth0.570.85-0.28
Value0.510.78-0.27

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · AMZN
Trend
-5.2 over 42 daily scores
From 61.8 (Jun 22) → 56.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Position sizing · AMZN
Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,839
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$196.99
25% below $262.65
$ at risk if stopped
$459.64
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest AMZN developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): score, valuation & FAQ

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is a Internet Retail company that scores 56.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and D/E (B+), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AMZN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AMZN 56.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Amazon.com, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AMZN score 56.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AMZN earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and D/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AMZN overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AMZN — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AMZN?

The bear case centers on the negative free cash flow of -$11.6 B and a debt‑to‑equity of 0.46, which could force capital allocation away from growth if cash generation stalls; a P/E of 21.1 is elevated for a company whose revenue growth may decelerate from the current 15.8% pace, and a beta of 1.45 amplifies downside in a market pullback. A sustained margin compression below 15% or a cash‑flow breach would confirm the risk and break the bull thesis.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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