FCF $3.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev-3.5%TTM YoYD+
Revenue -3.5% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.29A-
D/E 0.29 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E13.9xA-
P/E 13.9 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.20B+
PEG 1.20 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 54.8
Quality0.77
Growth0.50
Value0.43
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Revenue shrinking
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value7% belowest. fair value ~$161
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $41.8b. 19% off the 52-week high of $184.55. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $164.17 (implying +10% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 105% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $164.17 (12-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $207.26 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $265.80 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
DHI vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
DHI
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.77
0.83
-0.05
Growth
0.50
0.91
-0.41
Value
0.43
0.75
-0.32
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · DHI
Trend
+2.8 over 33 daily scores
From 52.0 (Jun 22) → 54.8 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · DHI
$
%
%
Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,944
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$112.15
25% below $149.53
$ at risk if stopped
$485.97
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI): score, valuation & FAQ
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) is a Residential Construction company that scores 54.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, DHI sits about 7% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is DHI a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores DHI 54.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of D.R. Horton, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does DHI score 54.8 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DHI earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is DHI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $149.53, DHI sits about 7% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.9x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in DHI?
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.