Lennar Corporation — Residential Construction. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
LEN-B
Lennar Corporation · Residential Construction
FCF$717mC+
Rev-7.4%D
D/E0.29A-
P/E13.1xA-
PEG11.11D
26.2Score
$83.45$20.1B
1Y Target$90.13Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$113.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$145.92Long-dated conviction
FCF$717mTTMC+
FCF $717m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev-7.4%TTM YoYD
Revenue -7.4% — meaningful contraction
D/E0.29A-
D/E 0.29 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E13.1xA-
P/E 13.1 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG11.11D
PEG 11.11 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 26.2
Quality63.0
Growth14.7
Value19.4
Why this score
Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
39% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value201% aboveest. fair value ~$28
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~27% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC10.0% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Lennar's robust homebuilding operations, spanning its Homebuilding East, Central, South Central, and West segments, present a compelling investment given its strong free cash flow generation and management's commitment to shareholder returns. Despite a -7.4% FY YoY revenue growth, the company generated $717m in TTM free cash flow, which our model notes is being actively deployed in stock buybacks, signaling confidence and a focus on per-share value. The crux lies in the company's ability to leverage its operational quality, reflected in our model's Quality pillar score of 63/100, to drive future profitability in a challenging market.
Moat
Lennar's integrated approach, combining homebuilding with in-house Financial Services like residential mortgage financing and title insurance, creates a significant operational advantage by streamlining the home-buying process for its customers. This vertical integration reduces friction and costs, enhancing customer stickiness and providing a competitive edge in the fragmented residential construction market. The company's low debt-to-equity of 0.29 further underpins its financial stability, allowing for strategic land acquisition and development even in fluctuating market conditions.
Risk
The primary bear case against Lennar centers on its exposure to cyclical downturns in the residential construction market, evidenced by a significant -7.4% FY YoY revenue growth. Our model's weakest pillar, Growth (15/100), highlights this concern, exacerbated by a high PEG ratio of 11.11, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic future growth that contradicts current trends and our model's implied ~27%/yr FCF growth for 10 years. A sustained decline in new home orders or a further contraction in profit margins below 4.9% would confirm that the market's growth expectations are fundamentally misaligned with reality.
Horizon
1-3 yr $90.13 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $113.78 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $145.92 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
LEN-B vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
LEN-B
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.63
0.83
-0.20
Growth
0.15
0.87
-0.72
Value
0.19
0.76
-0.57
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · LEN-B
Trend
-5.2 over 51 daily scores
From 31.4 (Jun 22) → 26.2 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
LEN-B at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate
$16.20
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LEN-B to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · LEN-B
$
%
%
Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,919
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$62.59
25% below $83.45
$ at risk if stopped
$479.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Lennar Corporation (LEN-B) is a Residential Construction company that scores 26.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), while Rev (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, LEN-B sits about 201% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 27% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is LEN-B a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores LEN-B 26.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Lennar Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does LEN-B score 26.2 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 63.0 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 14.7 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. LEN-B earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D) and PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so LEN-B is measured against Residential Construction peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is LEN-B overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $83.45, LEN-B sits about 201% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 27% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.1x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in LEN-B?
The primary bear case against Lennar centers on its exposure to cyclical downturns in the residential construction market, evidenced by a significant -7.4% FY YoY revenue growth. Our model's weakest pillar, Growth (15/100), highlights this concern, exacerbated by a high PEG ratio of 11.11, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic future growth that contradicts current trends and our model's implied ~27%/yr FCF growth for 10 years. A sustained decline in new home orders or a further contraction in profit margins below 4.9% would confirm that the market's growth expectations are fundamentally misaligned with reality.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.