1Y Target$82.56Near-term target
5Y Target$115.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$169.95Long-dated conviction
FCF$260mTTM · 12/25CFCF $260m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 12/25).
Rev+12.0%TTM YoYBRevenue +12.0% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.02totalAD/E 0.02 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E18.4xBP/E 18.4 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG1.53proxyC+PEG 1.53 — modest premium; above fair value · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Consumer products · market cap $4.0b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $99.17 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $82.56 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $115.62 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $169.95 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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