D/E 0.31 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E16.3xB+
P/E 16.3 — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG4.97D
PEG 4.97 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 48.1
Quality0.84
Growth0.41
Value0.32
Why this score
Buying back stock
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value32% belowest. fair value ~$9250
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~0% a year for the next decade — vs the ~14% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $16.8b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $8618.28 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -7% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $6,782 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 99% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.
Horizon
1-3 yr $6,782 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $9,930 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $14,730 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
NVR vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
NVR
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.84
0.83
in line
Growth
0.41
0.91
-0.50
Value
0.32
0.75
-0.42
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · NVR
Trend
-0.3 over 32 daily scores
From 48.4 (Jun 22) → 48.1 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · NVR
$
%
%
Shares to buy
0
Position size
$0.00
0.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4,714
25% below $6,286
$ at risk if stopped
$0.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
NVR, Inc. (NVR): score, valuation & FAQ
NVR, Inc. (NVR) is a Residential Construction company that scores 48.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NVR sits about 32% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 0% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is NVR a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores NVR 48.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of NVR, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does NVR score 48.1 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NVR earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is NVR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $6285.97, NVR sits about 32% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 0% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.3x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in NVR?
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.