Revenue +3.6% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.32A-
D/E 0.32 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E11.9xA-
P/E 11.9 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.99B+
PEG 0.99 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
13% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability18% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC15.1% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Toll Brothers, a leader in luxury residential construction, offers a compelling growth story driven by its focus on affluent buyers seeking high-end detached and attached homes, including its Toll Brothers City Living condominiums. Our model's Quality score of 79 out of 100, the strongest pillar of its 59.8/100 Quality-Growth score, underscores the company's robust operational foundation, translating into a solid 11.7% profit margin and a strong 15.2% ROE. With a current price implying only ~2%/yr free-cash-flow growth for 10 years according to our reverse DCF, significantly below its reported 3.6% FY YoY revenue growth, the market is underpricing the sustained demand for premium housing and the company's ability to capitalize on it through its diverse luxury offerings and recreational amenity communities. The crux is the persistent demand from an affluent demographic less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, allowing TOL to maintain pricing power and profitability.
Moat
Toll Brothers' enduring advantage stems from its established brand and expertise in developing luxury residential communities, including high-end detached and attached homes, as well as specialized offerings like Toll Brothers City Living condominiums. This focus on the affluent buyer segment, combined with the development of communities featuring recreational amenities like golf courses and country clubs, creates a sticky value proposition that commands premium pricing. The company's ability to offer extensive interior fit-out options further enhances customer lock-in and differentiation, making it difficult for competitors to quickly replicate its tailored luxury experience.
Risk
Skeptics would argue that despite its luxury niche, Toll Brothers remains exposed to the cyclical nature of the residential construction sector, a risk highlighted by our model's "Cyclical growth (caution)" signal. While current financials show strength, the company's high beta of 1.34 suggests significant sensitivity to broader economic downturns and interest rate shifts, which could disproportionately impact even affluent buyers' willingness to purchase new homes. The weakest pillar in our Quality-Growth score is Growth (50/100), indicating potential challenges in accelerating its 3.6% FY YoY revenue growth in a volatile market. A sustained slowdown in new home orders for its luxury residential communities, leading to a significant contraction in profit margin below its current 11.7%, would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $170.80 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $215.63 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $276.54 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · TOL
Trend
+2.5 over 46 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 59.8 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.5%
90-day change
-0.7%
Forward EPS estimate
$14.05
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TOL to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · TOL
$
%
%
Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,914
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$110.40
25% below $147.21
$ at risk if stopped
$478.42
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): score, valuation & FAQ
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a Residential Construction company that scores 82 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+).
Is TOL a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TOL 82 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Toll Brothers, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TOL score 82 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TOL earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is TOL overvalued or undervalued?
We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for TOL — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.
What are the main risks of investing in TOL?
Skeptics would argue that despite its luxury niche, Toll Brothers remains exposed to the cyclical nature of the residential construction sector, a risk highlighted by our model's "Cyclical growth (caution)" signal. While current financials show strength, the company's high beta of 1.34 suggests significant sensitivity to broader economic downturns and interest rate shifts, which could disproportionately impact even affluent buyers' willingness to purchase new homes. The weakest pillar in our Quality-Growth score is Growth (50/100), indicating potential challenges in accelerating its 3.6% FY YoY revenue growth in a volatile market. A sustained slowdown in new home orders for its luxury residential communities, leading to a significant contraction in profit margin below its current 11.7%, would confirm the bear case.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.