1Y Target$145.08Near-term target
5Y Target$179.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$229.46Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.5bTTM · 01/26C+FCF $1.5b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 01/26).
Rev+16.4%TTM YoYB+Revenue +16.4% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.34B+D/E 0.34 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E9.9xA-P/E 9.9 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG0.60proxyA-PEG 0.60 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Consumer products · market cap $12.7b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $168.36 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.60 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $145.08 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $179.76 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $229.46 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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