Toll Brothers, Inc. — Residential Construction. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc. · Residential Construction
FCF$1.2bC+
Rev+1.1%C
D/E0.34A-
P/E11.1xA-
PEG1.04B+
60.8Score
$148.26$13.9B
1Y Target$164.80Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$208.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$266.83Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTMC+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+1.1%TTM YoYC
Revenue +1.1% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E0.34A-
D/E 0.34 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E11.1xA-
P/E 11.1 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.04B+
PEG 1.04 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 60.8
Quality0.79
Growth0.48
Value0.59
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value17% belowest. fair value ~$178
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability18% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC15.1% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $13.9b. 12% off the 52-week high of $168.36. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $164.80 (implying +11% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $164.80 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $208.06 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $266.83 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · TOL
$
%
%
Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,927
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$111.19
25% below $148.26
$ at risk if stopped
$481.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): score, valuation & FAQ
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a Residential Construction company that scores 60.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, TOL sits about 17% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety).
Is TOL a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TOL 60.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Toll Brothers, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TOL score 60.8 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TOL earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is TOL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $148.26, TOL sits about 17% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety). It trades at a 11.1x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TOL?
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.