Bull Rankings model

Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) stock analysis

Residential Construction. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CVCO
Cavco Industries, Inc. · Residential Construction
57.1Score
$532.43Oct 9 close$4.1B
1Y Target$665.00Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$973.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,444Long-dated conviction
FCF$232mTTM · 03/26
C
FCF $232m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 03/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+11.4%FY YoY
B
Revenue +11.4% — at or above S&P median · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.04
A
D/E 0.04 — least levered decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈10th pctile)
P/E23.9x
C+
P/E 23.9 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG45.77
D
PEG 45.77 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 57.1
Quality80.1
Growth50.0
Value46.5
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
25% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value22% aboveest. fair value ~$436
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 13% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~11% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $4.1b. Down 25% from 52-week high of $713.01 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $665.00 (implying +25% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 128% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $665.00 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $973.63 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,444 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

CVCO vs the Top Picks average

PillarCVCOBook avgDiff
Quality8083-3
Growth5089-39
Value4676-30

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+13.0 over 81 daily scores
From 44.1 (Jun 22) → 57.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CVCO at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD57.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY80.1GROWTH50.0VALUE46.5Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~13% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$396$497FAIR-VALUE RANGE$532PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$436 · price $532 is 22% above it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$532LOW $443HIGH $713Trading at the 33rd percentile of its 52-week range ($443–$713).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+10%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.0%
90-day change-2.0%
Forward EPS estimate$28.82

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CVCO to earn is drifting lower (-2.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,597
3.2% of portfolio
Stop price
$399.32
25% below $532.43
$ at risk if stopped
$399.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO): score, valuation & FAQ

Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) is a Residential Construction company that scores 57.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CVCO sits about 22% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 13% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CVCO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CVCO 57.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Cavco Industries, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CVCO score 57.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 80.1 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 46.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CVCO earns its highest marks on D/E (A), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CVCO is measured against Residential Construction peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $532.43, CVCO sits about 22% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 13% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 23.9x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CVCO?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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