Bull Rankings model

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock analysis

Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources Limited · Oil & Gas E&P
54.2Score
$49.65Oct 9 close$102.4B
1Y Target$48.23Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$60.88Compound horizon
10Y Target$78.08Long-dated conviction
FCF$6.9bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $6.9b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+6.4%FY YoY
C+
Revenue +6.4% — steady but below market-beating range · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.43
B+
D/E 0.43 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E12.2x
B+
P/E 12.2 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG3.42
D
PEG 3.42 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 54.2
Quality89.4
Growth50.0
Value41.7
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
  • Foreign reporter (CAD)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value10% belowest. fair value ~$55
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 3% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~6% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $102.4b. 5% off the 52-week high of $52.31. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $48.23 (implying -3% upside).
Moat
Net margin 26% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $102.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $48.23 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $60.88 at ~4% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $78.08 if the moat survives secular pressure.

CNQ vs the Top Picks average

PillarCNQBook avgDiff
Quality8983+6
Growth5089-39
Value4276-34

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+6.2 over 82 daily scores
From 48.0 (Jun 22) → 54.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CNQ at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD54.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY89.4GROWTH50.0VALUE41.7Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~3% growth a year from here.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+56%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$53$57.7FAIR-VALUE RANGE$49.7PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$54.9 · price $49.7 is 10% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$49.7LOW $29.7HIGH $52.3Trading near its 52-week high ($29.7–$52.3).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.2%
90-day change+8.2%
Forward EPS estimate$3.92

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CNQ to earn is materially higher (+8.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
40
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$37.24
25% below $49.65
$ at risk if stopped
$496.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ): score, valuation & FAQ

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 54.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CNQ sits about 10% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 3% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CNQ a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CNQ 54.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Canadian Natural Resources Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CNQ score 54.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 89.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 41.7 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CNQ earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CNQ is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CNQ overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $49.65, CNQ sits about 10% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 3% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 12.2x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CNQ?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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