Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

EXE analysis

Expand Energy CorporationOil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

EXE
Expand Energy Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$3.0bB
Rev+167.8%A
D/E0.19A-
P/E8.3xA-
PEG1.06B+
61.1Score
$96.09$22.2B
1Y Target$125.00Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$183.01Compound horizon
10Y Target$271.49Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.0bTTM
B
FCF $3.0b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+167.8%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +167.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.19
A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E8.3x
A-
P/E 8.3 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.06
B+
PEG 1.06 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 61.1
Quality76.0
Growth50.0
Value59.9
Why this score
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value46% belowest. fair value ~$178
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-0% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC14.2% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $22.2b. Down 24% from 52-week high of $126.62 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +168% — in hypergrowth territory. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $125.00 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
Net margin 23% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $125.00 (25-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $183.01 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $271.49 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

EXE vs the Top Picks average

PillarEXEBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.84-0.08
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.600.78-0.18

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+9.0 over 46 daily scores
From 52.1 (Jun 22) → 61.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+6.2%
90-day change-7.9%
Forward EPS estimate$8.88

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EXE to earn is materially lower (-7.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
20
Position size
$1,922
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$72.07
25% below $96.09
$ at risk if stopped
$480.45
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE): score, valuation & FAQ

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 61.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). On valuation, EXE sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is EXE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EXE 61.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Expand Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EXE score 61.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). EXE earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is EXE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $96.09, EXE sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 8.3x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EXE?

Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Oil & Gas — E&P stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →