Bull Rankings model

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock analysis

Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
64.9Score
$88.22Oct 9 close$20.4B
1Y Target$123.22Analyst consensus · 27 analysts
5Y Target$155.57Compound horizon
10Y Target$199.51Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.5bTTM · 06/26
B
FCF $2.5b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+188.8%FY YoY
A
Revenue +188.8% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.19
A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E7.6x
A-
P/E 7.6 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.82
B+
PEG 0.82 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 64.9
Quality75.7
Growth50.0
Value72.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value49% belowest. fair value ~$174
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~8% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $20.4b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $126.62 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +189% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.82 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 27 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $123.22 (implying +40% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 15% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $123.22 (27-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $155.57 at ~12% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $199.51 if the moat survives secular pressure.

EXE vs the Top Picks average

PillarEXEBook avgDiff
Quality7683-7
Growth5089-39
Value7276-4

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+12.8 over 81 daily scores
From 52.1 (Jun 22) → 64.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

EXE at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD64.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY75.7GROWTH50.0VALUE72.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$165$187FAIR-VALUE RANGE$88.2PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$174 · price $88.2 is 49% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$88.2LOW $83.3HIGH $127Trading near its 52-week low ($83.3–$127).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100EXE 64.9Top 18% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-4.7%
90-day change-4.4%
Forward EPS estimate$9.65

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EXE to earn is drifting lower (-4.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
22
Position size
$1,941
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$66.16
25% below $88.22
$ at risk if stopped
$485.21
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE): score, valuation & FAQ

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 64.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). On valuation, EXE sits about 49% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is EXE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EXE 64.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Expand Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EXE score 64.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 75.7 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. EXE earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so EXE is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is EXE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $88.22, EXE sits about 49% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 7.6x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EXE?

Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Oil & Gas — E&P stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →