Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
AR
Antero Resources Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
61.8Score
$35.90Oct 9 close$11.0B
1Y Target$49.14Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$62.04Compound horizon
10Y Target$79.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$899mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $899m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+18.7%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +18.7% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.55B
D/E 0.55 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E10.3xA-
P/E 10.3 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.42A
PEG 0.42 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 61.8
Quality65.6
Growth50.0
Value71.9
Why this score
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value52% belowest. fair value ~$76
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~9% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC11.1% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $11.0b. Down 22% from 52-week high of $45.75 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +19%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.42 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $49.14 (implying +37% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $49.14 (21-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $62.04 at ~12% CAGR — earnings growth and a modest re-rating. 10 yr $79.57 if the moat survives secular pressure.
AR vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
AR
Book avg
Diff
Quality
66
83
-17
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
72
76
-4
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · AR
Trend
-2.6 over 82 daily scores
From 64.4 (Jun 22) → 61.8 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
AR at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+1.5%
90-day change
+1.0%
Forward EPS estimate
$4.39
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AR to earn is drifting higher (+1.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · AR
$
%
%
Shares to buy
55
Position size
$1,975
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$26.92
25% below $35.90
$ at risk if stopped
$493.63
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR): score, valuation & FAQ
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 61.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, AR sits about 52% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is AR a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores AR 61.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Antero Resources Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does AR score 61.8 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on value at 71.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AR earns its highest marks on PEG (A), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AR is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is AR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $35.90, AR sits about 52% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 10% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 10.3x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in AR?
Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.