Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CMG analysis

Chipotle Mexican Grill IncHotels, Restaurants & Leisure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
FCF$1.5bC+
Rev+5.7%C+
D/E1.79C
P/E33.2xC+
PEG5.85D
54.5Score
$37.22$47.7B
1Y Target$42.80Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$62.67Compound horizon
10Y Target$92.96Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.5bTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $1.5b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+5.7%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.7% — steady but below market-beating range · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E1.79total
C
D/E 1.79 — elevated leverage, limits flexibility · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E33.2x
C+
P/E 33.2 — elevated; requires sustained growth to justify
PEG5.85proxy
D
PEG 5.85 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.5
Quality0.82
Growth0.50
Value0.40
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value93% aboveest. fair value ~$19
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~21% a year for the next decade — vs the ~6% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure · market cap $47.7b. 16% off the 52-week high of $44.27.
Moat
ROE 48% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $42.80 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $62.67 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $92.96 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CMG vs the Top Picks average

PillarCMGBook avgDiff
Quality0.820.82in line
Growth0.500.90-0.40
Value0.400.75-0.36

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.4 over 31 daily scores
From 68.5 (Jun 22) → 68.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,973
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$27.91
25% below $37.22
$ at risk if stopped
$493.16
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG): score, valuation & FAQ

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is a Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure company that scores 54.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags PEG (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, CMG sits about 93% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CMG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CMG 54.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CMG score 54.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CMG grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CMG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $37.22, CMG sits about 93% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 33.2x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CMG?

Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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