1Y Target$61.69Near-term target
5Y Target$71.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$105.49Long-dated conviction
FCF$840mTTM · 12/25C+FCF $840m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 12/25).
Rev+9.7%TTM YoYBRevenue +9.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.38B+D/E 0.38 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E17.8xB+P/E 17.8 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG1.16B+PEG 1.16 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Restaurants · market cap $15.6b. Down 24% from 52-week high of $58.39 — deep drawdown territory. 22 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $61.69 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $61.69 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $71.76 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $105.49 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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