1Y Target$246.85Near-term target
5Y Target$345.70Compound horizon
10Y Target$508.15Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.1bTTM · 03/26BFCF $4.1b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+10.0%TTM YoYBRevenue +10.0% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E4.80totalDD/E 4.80 — very high leverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E17.3xB+P/E 17.3 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG1.73proxyC+PEG 1.73 — modest premium; above fair value · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure · market cap $25.8b. Down 29% from 52-week high of $303.80 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +10%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
ROE 148% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 4.80 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $246.85 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $345.70 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $508.15 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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