Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

EXPE analysis

Expedia Group, Inc.Travel Services. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc. · Travel Services
FCF$4.1bB
Rev+10.0%B
D/E2.57C
P/E23.9xB
PEG0.87B+
69.3Score
$268.77$32.3B
1Y Target$286.50Analyst consensus · 34 analysts
5Y Target$361.70Compound horizon
10Y Target$463.87Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.1bTTM
B
FCF $4.1b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+10.0%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.0% — at or above S&P median
D/E2.57
C
D/E 2.57 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E23.9x
B
P/E 23.9 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.87
B+
PEG 0.87 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.3
Quality0.84
Growth0.50
Value0.80
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value53% belowest. fair value ~$574
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability49% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC34.3% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Expedia’s B2C platform, anchored by the Expedia brand and Hotels.com, is riding a 10% FY YoY revenue growth while delivering a robust 9.9% profit margin and a hefty $4.1B free cash flow, all at a modest PE of 23.7x. The combination of solid cash generation and a sub‑10% PEG (0.87) means earnings can keep compounding as travel demand rebounds, making the stock a high‑quality growth engine.
Moat
The B2C segment’s extensive inventory across hotels, alternative rentals (Vrbo) and flights creates a network effect that locks in both supply and demand, raising switching costs for travelers who value a one‑stop shop. Moreover, the B2B arm leverages Expedia’s technology stack to power third‑party travel portals, locking in recurring revenue streams that competitors cannot replicate without comparable scale and data.
Risk
The weakest pillar in our model is growth, and the implied -8% free‑cash‑flow growth in the reverse DCF signals that the market is already pricing in optimistic cash trends. A slowdown in travel demand or margin compression would push the PE above the sector average, and the high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 2.57 could amplify downside if interest rates rise. A sustained dip in revenue growth below the current 10% would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $286.50 (34-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $361.70 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $463.87 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+0.2 over 22 daily scores
From 69.1 (Jun 22) → 69.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,881
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$201.58
25% below $268.77
$ at risk if stopped
$470.35
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE): score, valuation & FAQ

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is a Travel Services company that scores 69.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (B+). On valuation, EXPE sits about 53% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is EXPE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EXPE 69.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Expedia Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EXPE score 69.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). EXPE earns its highest marks on PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $268.77, EXPE sits about 53% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 23.9x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EXPE?

The weakest pillar in our model is growth, and the implied -8% free‑cash‑flow growth in the reverse DCF signals that the market is already pricing in optimistic cash trends. A slowdown in travel demand or margin compression would push the PE above the sector average, and the high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 2.57 could amplify downside if interest rates rise. A sustained dip in revenue growth below the current 10% would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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