Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

EAT analysis

Brinker International, Inc.Restaurants. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

EAT
Brinker International, Inc. · Restaurants
FCF$558mC+
Rev+7.9%B
D/E3.64C
P/E22.6xB
PEG1.70C+
59.2Score
$246.06$10.6B
1Y Target$263.75Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$386.16Compound horizon
10Y Target$572.84Long-dated conviction
FCF$558mTTM
C+
FCF $558m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+7.9%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.9% — at or above S&P median
D/E3.64
C
D/E 3.64 — more levered than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E22.6x
B
P/E 22.6 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.70
C+
PEG 1.70 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.2
Quality77.9
Growth76.5
Value34.9
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value3% belowest. fair value ~$253
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability170% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC50.3% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Restaurants · market cap $10.6b. 3% off the 52-week high of $253.71. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $263.75 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 114% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 3.64 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $263.75 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $386.16 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $572.84 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

EAT vs the Top Picks average

PillarEATBook avgDiff
Quality0.780.84-0.06
Growth0.760.84-0.07
Value0.350.78-0.43

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-16.9 over 47 daily scores
From 76.1 (Jun 22) → 59.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+16.3%
90-day change+16.1%
Forward EPS estimate$14.48

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EAT to earn is materially higher (+16.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,968
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$184.55
25% below $246.06
$ at risk if stopped
$492.12
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT): score, valuation & FAQ

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is a Restaurants company that scores 59.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, EAT sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is EAT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EAT 59.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Brinker International, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EAT score 59.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). EAT grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is EAT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $246.06, EAT sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.6x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EAT?

D/E 3.64 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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