COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
CMG vs YUMC
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. CMG scored 55.6, YUMC scored 75.0 — YUMC leads.
Compare another set
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
55.6
$38.84 · $49.9B
Score gap
19.4
YUMC leads
YUMC
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
75
$46.37 · $15.9B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
CMG
stronger →← stronger
YUMC
81
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
83
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
73
43
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
70
YUMC is stronger on 3 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
CMG
YUMC
$1.5bC+
FCF
$931mC+
+5.7%C+
Rev
+6.7%C+
1.79C
D/E
0.38A-
30.0xC+
P/E
17.8xB+
5.30D
PEG
1.12B+
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
CMG
YUMC
103% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
5% below
~22%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~7%/yr
-52%
1-yr DCF upside
-6%
-51%
5-yr DCF upside
+6%
-48%
10-yr DCF upside
+25%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
CMG
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Durable high returns
- Cyclical growth
YUMC
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Durable high returns
The companies
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Why now
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure · market cap $49.9b. 17% off the 52-week high of $46.61.
Moat
ROE 48% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Trailing P/E 30x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.
Why now
Restaurants · market cap $15.9b. Down 21% from 52-week high of $58.39 — deep drawdown territory. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $61.34 (implying +32% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 98% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.