Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ALK analysis

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Airlines. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Airlines & Travel
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc. · Airlines
FCF-$407mF
Rev+9.8%B
D/E2.08C
P/S0.4xA
PEG1.20B+
41.4Score
$47.26$5.3B
1Y Target$62.91Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$110.02Compound horizon
10Y Target$196.63Long-dated conviction
FCF-$407mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$407m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+9.8%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.8% — at or above S&P median
D/E2.08
C
D/E 2.08 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S0.4x
A
P/S 0.4x — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.20
B+
PEG 1.20 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 41.4
Quality0.27
Growth0.50
Value0.53
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
ROIC-1.8% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Airlines · market cap $5.3b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $65.88 — deep drawdown territory. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $62.91 (implying +33% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
D/E 2.08 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$407m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $62.91 (16-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $110.02 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $196.63 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ALK vs the Top Picks average

PillarALKBook avgDiff
Quality0.270.83-0.56
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.530.75-0.22

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.8 over 37 daily scores
From 38.6 (Jun 22) → 41.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
42
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$35.45
25% below $47.26
$ at risk if stopped
$496.23
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): score, valuation & FAQ

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is a Airlines company that scores 41.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (B+), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is ALK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ALK 41.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ALK score 41.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ALK earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ALK overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ALK — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in ALK?

D/E 2.08 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$407m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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