Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. ALK scored 19.1, ZTO scored 64.9 — ZTO leads.
Compare another set
Different reporting periods. ALK's fundamentals are as of March 2026, but ZTO's are as of December 2025 — a 3-month gap. Growth, margin and valuation figures below therefore describe different windows and aren't strictly like-for-like.
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Airlines · Quality-Growth
19.1
$39.36 · $4.4B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
45.8
ZTO leads
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Integrated Freight & Logistics · Quality-Growth
64.9
$20.15 · $15.1B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
Fastest growthALK+21.3%
Strongest balance sheetZTO0.35
Highest qualityZTO76 / 100
Largest discount to fair valueZTO-3%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
ALK
stronger →← stronger
ZTO
26
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
76
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
80
5
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
81
ZTO is stronger on 3 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
ALK
ZTO
-$477mF
FCF
$891mC+
+21.3%A-
Rev
+10.9%B
2.08D
D/E
0.35A-
0.3xA
P/S
—
1.20B+
PEG
1.01B+
—
P/E
11.0xA
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
ALK
ZTO
—
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
3% below
—
Growth the price impliesyr-1 FCF growth, fading to 4% · lower = less priced in
~7%/yr
—
1-yr DCF upside
-6%
—
5-yr DCF upside
+3%
—
10-yr DCF upside
+18%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
ALK
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cyclical growth
ZTO
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Foreign reporter (CNY)
The companies
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
Airlines · $39.36 · beta 1.33
Why now
Airlines · market cap $4.4b. Down 35% from 52-week high of $60.63 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +21%, comfortably above the S&P median. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $55.25 (implying +40% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
D/E 2.08 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$477m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Integrated Freight & Logistics · market cap $15.1b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $26.20 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $27.88 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where ALK and ZTO diverge
On the headline score the gap is 45.8 points in favor of ZTO. The widest single difference is Value, where ZTO leads by 75.9 points.
ValueALK 5.4 · ZTO 81.3ZTO +75.9
QualityALK 25.9 · ZTO 76.3ZTO +50.4
GrowthALK 50.0 · ZTO 79.8ZTO +29.8
Pillars run 0–100. Value is judged against each company's own sector, so a Value score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.
Common questions
Is ZTO or ALK the better stock?
ZTO scores higher: ZTO 64.9, ALK 19.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth score, which blends business quality, growth and valuation into one number. A higher score means a stronger business at a more reasonable price — it is not a price target or a recommendation.
Where do ZTO and ALK differ most?
The widest gap is value, where ZTO leads by 76 points on the 0–100 pillar scale. ZTO leads all three pillars, so the gap is broad rather than a single-measure difference.
How are ZTO and ALK scored?
Each carries the same 0–100 quality-growth score used everywhere on the site, built from three pillars — quality (profitability and returns on capital), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (what you pay for them) — combined as a geometric mean, so a weak pillar cannot be papered over by a strong one.
How current is this comparison?
The whole universe is re-scored every trading day after the US market close, so the scores and fundamentals here reflect the latest published edition.