Integrated Freight & Logistics. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. · Integrated Freight & Logistics
64.9Score
$20.15Oct 9 close$15.1B
1Y Target$27.88Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$35.19Compound horizon
10Y Target$45.14Long-dated conviction
FCF$891mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $891m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+10.9%FY YoYB
Revenue +10.9% — at or above S&P median · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.35A-
D/E 0.35 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E11.0xA
P/E 11.0 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.01B+
PEG 1.01 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 64.9
Quality76.3
Growth79.8
Value81.3
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value3% belowest. fair value ~$21
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 7% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~11% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC10.7% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Integrated Freight & Logistics · market cap $15.1b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $26.20 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $27.88 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $27.88 (18-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $35.19 at ~12% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $45.14 if the moat survives secular pressure.
ZTO vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ZTO
Book avg
Diff
Quality
76
83
-7
Growth
80
89
-9
Value
81
76
+5
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ZTO
Trend
0.0 over 82 daily scores
From 64.9 (Jun 22) → 64.9 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ZTO at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.1%
90-day change
-1.3%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.24
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ZTO to earn is drifting lower (-1.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · ZTO
$
%
%
Shares to buy
99
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$15.11
25% below $20.15
$ at risk if stopped
$498.71
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO): score, valuation & FAQ
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is an Integrated Freight & Logistics company that scores 64.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, ZTO sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 7% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is ZTO a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ZTO 64.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ZTO score 64.9 on Bull Rankings?
It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 76.3, growth 79.8, value 81.3 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. ZTO earns its highest marks on P/E (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ZTO is measured against Integrated Freight & Logistics peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $20.15, ZTO sits about 3% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 7% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.0x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ZTO?
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.