Bull Rankings model

SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) stock analysis

Airlines. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
SKYW
SkyWest, Inc. · Airlines
68.4Score
$96.52Oct 9 close$3.7B
1Y Target$125.33Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$158.23Compound horizon
10Y Target$202.93Long-dated conviction
FCF$909mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $909m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+9.1%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.1% — at or above S&P median · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.86
C+
D/E 0.86 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E9.6x
A
P/E 9.6 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.66
C+
PEG 1.66 — modest premium; above fair value

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 68.4
Quality70.5
Growth50.0
Value90.9
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value69% belowest. fair value ~$313
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 20% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability30% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC9.2% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Airlines · market cap $3.7b. 18% off the 52-week high of $117.72. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $125.33 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
Beta 1.48 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $125.33 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $158.23 at ~10% CAGR — buyback-driven per-share compounding. 10 yr $202.93 if the moat survives secular pressure.

SKYW vs the Top Picks average

PillarSKYWBook avgDiff
Quality7183-12
Growth5089-39
Value9176+15

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+4.4 over 81 daily scores
From 64.0 (Jun 22) → 68.4 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

SKYW at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD68.4/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY70.5GROWTH50.0VALUE90.9Reverse-DCF · Price implies an outright decline from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$277$370 ▸FAIR-VALUE RANGE · ▸ BEYOND THE SCALE$96.5PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$313 · price $96.5 is 69% below it.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100SKYW 68.4Top 12% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$96.5LOW $77.9HIGH $118Trading at the 47th percentile of its 52-week range ($77.9–$118).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.9%
90-day change+1.1%
Forward EPS estimate$12.12

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SKYW to earn is drifting higher (+1.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
20
Position size
$1,930
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$72.39
25% below $96.52
$ at risk if stopped
$482.60
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW): score, valuation & FAQ

SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) is an Airlines company that scores 68.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A). On valuation, SKYW sits about 69% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 20% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is SKYW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SKYW 68.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of SkyWest, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SKYW score 68.4 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 90.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SKYW earns its highest marks on P/E (A). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SKYW is measured against Airlines peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is SKYW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $96.52, SKYW sits about 69% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 20% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 9.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SKYW?

Beta 1.48 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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