Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FDX analysis

FedEx CorporationIntegrated Freight & Logistics. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

FDX
FedEx Corporation · Integrated Freight & Logistics
FCF$5.1bB+
Rev+7.7%B
D/E1.36C
P/E17.9xA-
PEG1.41B
61.4Score
$331.41$78.4B
1Y Target$356.37Analyst consensus · 26 analysts
5Y Target$521.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$774.00Long-dated conviction
FCF$5.1bTTM
B+
FCF $5.1b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+7.7%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.36
C
D/E 1.36 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.9x
A-
P/E 17.9 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.41
B
PEG 1.41 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 61.4
Quality55.9
Growth61.4
Value67.3
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value2% belowest. fair value ~$340
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability79% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.8% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Integrated Freight & Logistics · market cap $78.4b. 4% off the 52-week high of $345.37. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $356.37 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 115% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $78.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Net margin 4.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $356.37 (26-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $521.76 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $774.00 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FDX vs the Top Picks average

PillarFDXBook avgDiff
Quality0.560.83-0.28
Growth0.610.87-0.25
Value0.670.76-0.09

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+9.9 over 50 daily scores
From 51.5 (Jun 22) → 61.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

FDX at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD61.4/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY55.9GROWTH61.4VALUE67.3Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~10% growth a year from here.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$331$178 LOWHIGH $345Trading near its 52-week high ($178–$345).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+80%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$283$438FAIR-VALUE RANGE$331PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$340 · price $331 is 2% below it.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.7%
90-day change-6.7%
Forward EPS estimate$20.84

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FDX to earn is materially lower (-6.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$248.56
25% below $331.41
$ at risk if stopped
$497.12
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

FedEx Corporation (FDX): score, valuation & FAQ

FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a Integrated Freight & Logistics company that scores 61.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and FCF (B+). On valuation, FDX sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FDX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FDX 61.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of FedEx Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FDX score 61.4 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 67.3 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 55.9 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. FDX earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and FCF (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so FDX is measured against Integrated Freight & Logistics peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is FDX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $331.41, FDX sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.9x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FDX?

Net margin 4.7% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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