Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

UAL analysis

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Airlines. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Airlines & Travel
UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. · Airlines
FCF$2.5bB
Rev+8.5%B
D/E2.02C
P/E11.6xA
PEG6.50D
44.5Score
$123.76$40.2B
1Y Target$162.15Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$204.71Compound horizon
10Y Target$262.54Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.5bTTM
B
FCF $2.5b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+8.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E2.02
C
D/E 2.02 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E11.6x
A
P/E 11.6 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG6.50
D
PEG 6.50 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 44.5
Quality0.59
Growth0.50
Value0.30
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value17% belowest. fair value ~$149
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC10.1% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Airlines · market cap $40.2b. 11% off the 52-week high of $138.77. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $162.15 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
D/E 2.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon
1-3 yr $162.15 (23-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $204.71 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $262.54 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

UAL vs the Top Picks average

PillarUALBook avgDiff
Quality0.590.83-0.24
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.300.75-0.45

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.9 over 37 daily scores
From 50.4 (Jun 22) → 44.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,980
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$92.82
25% below $123.76
$ at risk if stopped
$495.04
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL): score, valuation & FAQ

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is a Airlines company that scores 44.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, UAL sits about 17% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is UAL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores UAL 44.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does UAL score 44.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). UAL earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is UAL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $123.76, UAL sits about 17% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.6x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in UAL?

D/E 2.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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